Price · Bitcoin
The 2-Year MA Multiplier, explained
Bitcoin's price against two slow-moving lines: its 2-year moving average and that same average times five. How the two lines are built, what the Risk Level reads, and why price has spent most of its history between them.
- Baseline
- 730d MA
- Upper line
- × 5
- Risk Level
- 0.5 → 5
- History from
- 2011
Bitcoin's 2-year moving average
the same average, multiplied by five
price-to-average ratio mapped onto 0–100
Bitcoin only, a reading for every day
What is the 2-Year MA Multiplier?
A Bitcoin price chart built on two lines. The first is the 730-day (2-year) moving average, the average price over the last two years, drawn in blue. The second is that same average multiplied by five, drawn in red.
It was devised by Philip Swift and published on LookIntoBitcoin as the Bitcoin Investor Tool. The idea is that the two lines frame a normal range: price has spent most of its history between them, and the stretches outside it have tended to be the extremes of a cycle.
What do the two lines show?
The 2-year average. Periods when price has traded below this line have historically lined up with cycle lows, the deep, drawn-out end of Bitcoin’s bear markets.
The ×5 line. Pushes above five times the 2-year average have historically lined up with cycle peaks. Because it is the same average scaled up, it rises and flattens along with it.
How is the Risk Level calculated?
The Risk Level turns the gap between price and the 2-year average into one number. It starts from the ratio of the two, price ÷ 2Y MA, then places that ratio on a 0–100 scale: a ratio of 0.5, price at half its 2-year average and the coldest readings of past bear markets, reads 0; a ratio of 5, price sitting on the ×5 line, reads 100. Everything in between is scaled evenly, so price on the 2-year average itself reads about 11.
On the chart the line is drawn on the blue-to-red heat scale used across the platform: deep blue at the bottom of the range, amber in the middle, red at the top. Readings beyond either end are held at 0 or 100.
What do the zones mean?
Hover any day on the chart and, alongside price, both lines, the ratio and the Risk Level, you get a zone name taken from the same ratio. They are labels for market phases, not instructions:
Accumulation when the ratio is below 1, meaning price is under its 2-year average. In cycle from 1 up to 5, the normal range between the two lines. Distribution above 5, when price has pushed through the ×5 line.
It's descriptive, not predictive
The two lines show where price sits against its own two-year history, not where it goes next. Past cycles lining up with them is a record of what happened, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
A peak does not have to reach the upper line
The ×5 line is a historical marker, not a target price has to hit. A larger, more mature market may find it harder to stretch that far above its own average, so a cycle can peak with the ratio well under 5 and the Risk Level short of 100.
The Risk Level stops at both ends
A ratio of 5 already reads 100 and a ratio of 0.5 already reads 0. Anything further out is held at the end of the scale, so two very different extremes can show the same number.
Only a handful of cycles to learn from
Bitcoin has completed only a few full cycles since this chart's history starts in 2011. A pattern seen across three or four past peaks and lows is a thin basis for expecting a fifth to follow it.
How do you read the chart?
Read it on a cycle scale. Both lines move slowly, so the chart says a great deal about where a cycle stands and very little about the next few days or weeks. A log scale is the default, which keeps 2011 and today readable on the same axis.
Watch the gap, not just the lines. Price close to the blue line, or under it, has historically been the quiet end of a cycle. Price climbing toward the red line has been the late stage of a bull run. The Risk Level is that same gap as a number, so the two always tell the same story.
Switch lines off if you need room. The 2-year average, the ×5 line and the Risk Level each switch on and off from the legend; the price line always stays on.
Where it fits
It is not one of the inputs behind the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heatmeter score. It works as a standalone reference for roughly where in a cycle price sits, next to the Heatmeter rather than inside it.
Common questions
What is the 2-Year MA Multiplier?
A Bitcoin price chart with two long-horizon lines: the 730-day (2-year) moving average and that same average multiplied by five. It was devised by Philip Swift on LookIntoBitcoin, where it is known as the Bitcoin Investor Tool. Price has spent most of its history between the two lines; stretches below the lower one have historically lined up with cycle lows, and pushes above the upper one with cycle peaks.
How is the Risk Level calculated?
It takes the ratio of price to the 2-year moving average and places it on a 0–100 scale. A ratio of 0.5 (price at half the average) reads 0, and a ratio of 5 (price on the ×5 line) reads 100, with everything in between scaled evenly. Readings beyond either end are held at 0 or 100.
What do the zones mean?
Hover any day and the chart names a market phase from the same ratio. Below the 2-year average (a ratio under 1) is labelled Accumulation, between the average and the ×5 line is In cycle, and above the ×5 line is Distribution. They are names for where price sat, not instructions.
Why a 2-year average?
Two years is long enough to smooth over the swings inside a Bitcoin cycle but short enough that the line still follows the market's broad trend. It moves slowly by design, so the chart says a lot about where a cycle stands and very little about the next few days or weeks.
Where does the data come from?
CoinGlass, which publishes Bitcoin price alongside its 730-day moving average and the ×5 line. The chart covers Bitcoin only, from 2011 onward.
Is the 2-Year MA Multiplier part of the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heatmeter?
No. Neither the Bitcoin nor the Ethereum Heatmeter composite includes it as one of its weighted inputs. It exists on this platform as its own standalone chart.
Related guides
Others in price & cycle models — What price is doing relative to its own history, trend and long-run models.
- MVRVWhat every Bitcoin is worth today against what it last changed hands for — a read on collective paper profit.
- Reserve RiskHow patient long-term holders are against the price they could sell at — cheap when they hold through a rally.
- Risk WaveHow far price has stretched from its long-run average, adjusted so Bitcoin’s wild early years don’t dwarf recent moves.
- Oscillator RiskHow today’s market conditions rank against every reading on record — 0 is the calmest, 100 the most stretched.
- BDZOur own measure of how far Bitcoin’s price has stretched from its recent average, in either direction.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
See both lines against real price
Everything above is how the chart is built. On the 2-Year MA Multiplier chart you get Bitcoin’s price, its 2-year average and the ×5 line on a log scale back to 2011, with the Risk Level drawn on the heat scale. Hover any day for the ratio, the Risk Level and the zone. Updated daily.