Analytics · Bitcoin
Astrology, explained
One lap of a ring is one Bitcoin cycle, from the previous bottom through the top to the next bottom. How the time and price scores are built, how later cycles are projected, and what Altcoin Orbits actually places.
- One lap
- Bottom → top
- Score
- Average
- Later tops
- 2.5× · 1.8× · 1.5×
- Orbit rings
- 4
then on to the next bottom
time risk and price risk, equal weight
each a smaller multiple of the last
market-cap bands around Bitcoin
What is Astrology?
Two views of the same idea. Cycle View draws one Bitcoin cycle as a ring, with Bitcoin at the center and a marker for today. One lap runs from the previous cycle bottom, through the top, and on to the next bottom. The first half of the lap is the climb. The second half is the drop.
Altcoin Orbits is the other view. Altcoins circle Bitcoin on four rings. Which ring, and how large the dot is, comes from market cap. How fast it travels comes from 24-hour momentum.
How is the score built?
The headline number is the average of two readings, each from 0 to 100.
Time. Where today sits on the lap, and nothing else. It follows 50 × (1 − cos of a full turn around the lap), so it reads 0 at a bottom and 100 at the top, then falls back toward 0 on the way to the next bottom.
Price. Where the modelled price sits between that cycle’s low and its peak, on a log scale. The low is the cheaper of the two bottoms that bracket the top. 0 is that low. 100 is the peak.
The same position is also given a name: Accumulation at the start of the lap, Bull Run on the climb, Distribution around the top, Bear Market on the way down, and Capitulation into the next bottom.
Where the future cycles come from
Finished cycles use the recorded tops and bottoms: December 2013, December 2017 and November 2021 for the tops, and the bottoms that followed in 2015, 2018 and 2022. Halvings are marked on the ring, including dates the model assumes for 2028 and 2032.
From there the chart projects. Cycle 4’s projected top is 2.5× the 2021 high of $69,000. Cycle 5 is 1.8× that projected top, and cycle 6 is 1.5× the one before it. Each projected drawdown starts from 87% and is multiplied by 0.915 once per cycle before this one. If the live all-time high is already above $69,000, that high replaces the cycle-4 top on the chart. The later cycles still chain off the projections.
This is not our forecast
Blockchain Decoded takes no side on the four-year cycle. The people who run this platform do not believe it is proven, and we do not treat it as real in our own work. The page only shows how that cycle would play out for readers who already take it seriously, or who want to weigh it. It is a reflection of that belief. It is not a prediction from us.
The projection is a model, not a date
Later tops are 2.5×, then 1.8×, then 1.5× the previous projected top, starting from the 2021 high of $69,000. Drawdowns shrink from an 87% base by a factor of 0.915 each cycle. That is a diminishing-returns sketch of past cycles, not a price the market has to reach.
A new all-time high replaces the cycle-4 top
If the live high is already above $69,000, the chart uses that high, and the day it printed, as cycle 4’s top. Cycles 5 and 6 still chain off the projected tops, not off that live high.
Three finished cycles is a thin sample
The historical anchors are the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops and the bottoms that followed them. A pattern across three cycles is a description of what happened, not proof the next one repeats it.
Correlation does not place a coin
The average-correlation figure is a fixed reference table, not a live calculation, and it does not decide which ring a coin sits on. Ring and size come from market cap. Orbit speed comes from 24-hour momentum.
What Altcoin Orbits places
Coins are the top names by market cap, with Bitcoin, stablecoins and wrapped tokens left out. Four bands set the ring: about $15 billion and above on the inside, $4–15 billion next, $1.2–4 billion after that, and below $1.2 billion on the outside. A larger cap also draws a larger dot, on a log scale.
Speed is separate. Momentum mixes the 24-hour price change with 24-hour volume, and a higher momentum shortens the time it takes to go around. The correlation number you can read on a coin is a fixed reference, not a live calculation, and it does not move the dot.
The altcoin-season figure on that view is CoinGlass’s published index when the feed answers. When it does not, the chart uses a damped share of the coins on screen that beat Bitcoin over the last 24 hours.
How do you read it?
Stay on the cycle scale. The ring is about where today sits between a bottom and a top. Play, pause and the speed control walk the same model through time. They do not change the score for today, which stays pinned to the current date.
Read the two halves apart. A high time score means the clock is near a top. A high price score means the modelled price is near that cycle’s peak. They can disagree, and the headline is only their average.
Common questions
What is Astrology?
A Bitcoin cycle chart drawn as a ring, plus a second view of coins orbiting the center. One lap of the ring runs from the previous cycle bottom, through the top, to the next bottom. The marker on the ring is today. Altcoin Orbits puts the largest coins closer to the center and lets 24-hour momentum set how fast each one travels.
What do Time, Price and the score mean?
Time risk depends only on where today sits on the lap. It reads 0 at a bottom and 100 at the top, because it follows a cosine of that position. Price risk is where the modelled price sits, on a log scale, between that cycle’s low and its peak: 0 at the low, 100 at the peak. The headline score is the average of the two.
What are the phases?
The same position on the lap is named in five stretches: Accumulation at the start, then Bull Run, Distribution around the top, Bear Market on the way down, and Capitulation into the next bottom. They are names for where the clock sits, not instructions.
How are future tops and bottoms chosen?
Cycle 4’s projected top is 2.5 times the 2021 high of $69,000, dated mid-October 2025 in the model. Cycle 5 is 1.8 times that projected top, and cycle 6 is 1.5 times the one before it. Each projected drawdown is 87% times 0.915 to the power of one less than the cycle number, rounded. If Bitcoin has already printed a high above $69,000, that live high replaces the cycle-4 top on the chart.
What decides an altcoin’s ring?
Market cap, in four bands: about $15 billion and above on the inner ring, $4 to $15 billion on the next, $1.2 to $4 billion on the third, and below $1.2 billion on the outside. A larger cap also draws a larger dot. How fast the dot travels comes from 24-hour price change and volume, not from correlation.
Where does the data come from?
CoinGecko, for Bitcoin’s price and daily history and for prices, market caps and 24-hour changes of the orbiting coins. The season number on the orbits view is CoinGlass’s published index when that feed answers, and otherwise a damped share of the coins on screen that rose more than Bitcoin over the last 24 hours.
Related guides
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- Funding RateWhat leveraged traders pay to hold their positions — the cost of crowd consensus.
- Alt Open Interest ShareThe share of futures open interest held by five major altcoins against Bitcoin, ranked against its own history.
- Open InterestHow much leverage is outstanding across futures venues, and which exchanges hold it.
- Long/Short RatioHow futures traders are split between longs and shorts, for all accounts and for the largest traders.
- Buy/Sell VolumeHow much money is arriving as market orders on each side, across major futures venues.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the ring against today’s price
Everything above is how the chart is built. On Astrology you get the ring, the time and price scores, and the projected cycles, with Altcoin Orbits one toggle away. The live Bitcoin price comes through with the page.