Macro correlation · TradFi
S&P 500, explained
The benchmark US equity index — roughly 500 of the largest publicly traded American companies, weighted by market cap — plotted directly against Bitcoin so the relationship between the two is something you can see, not something you have to take on faith.
- Source
- FRED
- Overlay
- Bitcoin
- Default scale
- Log · Log
- Reads as
- Two lines
series ID SP500, daily
CoinGecko, matched to the S&P 500 date range
both lines, toggleable to linear
the index and Bitcoin on one timeline
What is the S&P 500 chart on Blockchain Decoded?
Two lines, one timeline: the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin's price, drawn on the same chart so you can watch how they relate to each other over whatever period you pick — a year, five years, or up to ten years, the limit of the FRED series behind the S&P 500 line.
That's the whole of it. The index comes from FRED, Bitcoin's price comes from CoinGecko, and nothing in between turns the pair into a score or a single number. It's two lines on one chart, not a model.
What exactly is the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is an index of roughly 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, weighted by market capitalisation — the bigger the company, the more it counts. It is the standard reference point for US stock market performance, and one of the most widely watched gauges of how confident investors are feeling. It comes from FRED as the series SP500, daily by default, with weekly through annual views available from the same control that sets the frequency.
We don't adjust it in any way — the level you see is the level FRED publishes for that date, unchanged.
Why overlay Bitcoin on an equity index at all?
Because whether Bitcoin moves like a traditional investment — shares and the like — is a genuinely useful question, and one that gets answered by assertion far more often than by looking. Plenty of commentary states the link as settled fact. This chart is the alternative: put both lines in front of you and let the relationship — close in some stretches, absent in others — be something you can see for yourself.
The overlay is optional, not forced. It defaults to visible and can be toggled off from the legend if you only want the index on its own.
Why does the chart default to a log scale?
The S&P 500 and the Bitcoin overlay each sit on their own independent price axis, so this isn't about one line drowning out the other — it's about what a straight percentage move looks like on screen.
Both the index and the Bitcoin overlay default to a log scale for exactly that reason: it measures a move in percentage terms rather than in points, so a 10% swing looks like a 10% swing on either line, whatever the price level. Each side has its own scale toggle in the controls if you want to switch either one to linear.
What does this chart get wrong, or leave out?
Two lines on one chart are easy to read more into than they actually say, so here is what this one does and doesn't tell you.
This is a picture, not a measurement
The chart draws two lines on one canvas and lets you look at them. It does not work out a number for how closely they move together. Two lines that look like they rise and fall in step are not the same thing as a figure telling you by how much.
It is not a scored indicator
There is no 0–100 reading here, and it is not an input — weighted or otherwise — to the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heat Meter. Treat it as context, not as a signal.
Two markets, two calendars
The S&P 500 only records a value on days US stock markets are open — weekdays, minus holidays. Bitcoin trades every single day, including the ones the index has nothing to show against. The two lines are not measured on the same calendar.
The scale toggle changes the story
Both lines default to a log scale — a scale that measures a move in percentage terms rather than in points — each on its own axis. A 10% swing then looks like a 10% swing on either line, whatever the price level. Switch either side to linear and the picture changes shape; the data behind it hasn’t.
The S&P side is not the full history
FRED's SP500 series only carries roughly the last 10 years of daily data under its licensing agreement, so the visible range on the S&P line is effectively the same as the 10Y button no matter what timeframe you pick — including MAX. The Bitcoin line is clipped to match, so pre-2016-ish Bitcoin history isn't shown here even though it exists elsewhere on the site.
Two lines that move together are a pattern worth noticing. They are not a number, and they are not a forecast.
How do you read the S&P 500 / Bitcoin overlay?
Watch the gap, not either line alone. Stretches where the two lines rise and fall in step are visually easy to spot. Stretches where one keeps climbing while the other stalls, or one drops sharply while the other barely moves, are equally visible — and both are normal across a long enough history.
Change the range before you conclude anything. A one-year window and a ten-year window can tell noticeably different stories about the same two assets. The timeframe control (1Y, 5Y, 10Y, MAX) exists so you can check whether a pattern holds up outside the window you first noticed it in — though MAX won't take you further back than 10Y, since that's the limit of the underlying S&P 500 series.
Where it fits
The S&P 500 chart is a macro-context view, not a cycle-timing or valuation indicator. It doesn't score anything, it doesn't feed a composite, and — unlike indicators such as Pi Cycle Top or MVRV — it is not one of the weighted inputs behind either the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heat Meter. Its job is narrower: let you see, on your own terms, whether Bitcoin is currently moving with the wider stock market or on its own.
Read it alongside the heatmeters rather than instead of them. The heatmeters tell you where Bitcoin or Ethereum sit in their own cycle; this chart tells you whether the wider market is pulling in the same direction while that's happening.
Common questions
What is the S&P 500 chart on Blockchain Decoded?
It plots the S&P 500 index — FRED’s daily SP500 series — directly against Bitcoin’s price history from CoinGecko, on the same timeline. There is no score and no threshold behind it: the two are drawn side by side so the relationship is something you look at rather than something you’re told.
What exactly is the S&P 500 index?
A market-capitalization-weighted index of roughly 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is the standard reference point for US equity market performance and is used as a benchmark far beyond stocks alone.
Why overlay Bitcoin on an equity index at all?
Because whether Bitcoin moves with traditional markets — shares and the like — is a question worth answering with your own eyes over time, not assuming from a headline. Putting the two together lets you see the stretches where they move in step and the stretches where they clearly don’t, across whatever time range you choose.
Is the S&P 500 used in the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heat Meter?
No. The S&P 500 is not one of the weighted inputs behind either composite. This chart is a standalone macro-context view, not a component of either cycle score.
Why does the chart default to a log scale?
The S&P 500 and Bitcoin each sit on their own price axis, so it isn't about keeping one line from flattening the other. Log scale is the default on both because it measures a move in percentage terms rather than in points — a 10% swing looks like a 10% swing on either line, whatever the price level. Either side can be switched to linear from the controls.
Does a high visual correlation mean Bitcoin will keep moving with stocks?
No. The chart shows a history, not a forecast, and it puts no number on how closely the two move — it draws the two lines and leaves the reading to you. A stretch where they moved together is a fact about the past, not a promise about the next one.
Related guides
Others in traditional markets — What equities and institutional flows are doing next to crypto.
- NASDAQ CompositeThe tech-weighted index Bitcoin has tracked most closely in risk-on and risk-off swings.
- Dow JonesThe oldest US index, as a slower read on broad market direction.
- Spot ETF FlowsDaily net money in and out of spot crypto ETFs, per fund and per asset.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
See the live overlay
Everything above is how it works. On the live chart you get the interactive version: daily FRED data through 2026, the Bitcoin overlay you can toggle on or off, independent log/linear scales for each line, and timeframes from one year up to the 10-year limit of the underlying S&P 500 series.