Treasury Debt Rollover, explained

Peak year

2026

$11.5T maturing — largest wall on record

2026 share

39.8%

of total outstanding marketable debt

2026–27 wall

~71%

combined share maturing in 24 months

Updated

2–3×/yr

when the CBO releases new projections

A map of when the US government's existing debt comes due. Every Treasury bill, note, bond, inflation-protected security and floating-rate note has a maturity date, and on that date the principal has to be paid back — which in practice almost always means issuing new debt to cover it. This chart sums every dollar of marketable debt maturing in each calendar year from 2026 through 2035.

It is not a price chart and it carries no buy or sell signal. It is a calendar of refinancing pressure — how much the Treasury is forced to roll over, and when.

Two things land in the same year. First, roughly $10.2 trillion of debt issued in prior years simply happens to mature in 2026. Second, roughly $1.3 trillion a year of new issuance is projected on top of that, driven by the ongoing federal deficit. Combined, that is 39.8% of all outstanding marketable debt maturing in a single year — the largest rollover wall in US history.

2027 adds another $9.1 trillion (31.5%). Together, 2026 and 2027 account for roughly 71% of total outstanding debt maturing inside a 24-month window.

Two places. The US Treasury's own FiscalData service publishes the Schedules of Federal Debt — the real maturity dates on securities that have already been issued. Alongside that sit projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) for how much additional debt the deficit will force the Treasury to issue in future years. The near-term bars (2026, 2027) are therefore close to locked in, since most of that debt is already outstanding with a fixed maturity date. The later bars (2030–2035) depend more heavily on projected issuance and shift as those forecasts are revised.

It covers every length of borrowing — short-term bills (up to one year), medium-term notes (2–10 years), and long-term bonds (10–30 years) — so a bar for a given year captures everything maturing that year, however long ago it was originally issued.

The Treasury does not get to choose when it refinances — maturing principal has to be repaid on its due date, which in practice means issuing new debt at whatever rate the market demands that day. A 1% rate increase applied across $10 trillion of rollover adds roughly $100 billion in additional annual interest expense — and that cost is largely locked in for however long the new debt's term runs.

The reverse also holds: if the Fed cuts aggressively before the 2026–2027 wall clears, the Treasury refinances that debt at lower rates instead, which can save a comparable amount over the life of the new securities. Either way, the size of the wall is what determines how much a change in rates actually costs or saves — a rate move against a small rollover barely matters; the same move against $11.5T is enormous.

This is the refinancing calendar that actually sets interest expense — not the deficit headline, the wall.

Bar length is the wall. A longer bar means more debt maturing that year, which means more exposure to whatever rate prevails when it rolls over. The colour gradient — red for the nearest, heaviest years, blue for the furthest, lightest ones — makes the same point visually: red is where refinancing pressure is highest right now.

Watch the front of the schedule, not the whole ten years. The 2026 and 2027 bars are close to fixed, because most of that debt is already outstanding. Everything from 2030 onward is a projection built on assumptions about future deficits, and will move as the CBO revises them — treat the far end of the chart as a working estimate, not a locked schedule.

Treasury Debt Rollover is a macro backdrop indicator: it says nothing about Bitcoin, Ethereum or any asset's valuation directly, and it carries no bullish or bearish signal of its own. What it does is quantify a real fiscal pressure point — how much the government must refinance, and how sensitive that refinancing is to Fed policy.

It is not one of the 14 weighted inputs behind the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heatmeter score, so a reading here is not folded into the platform's composite view. It pairs most naturally with the Fed Funds Rate and Treasury General Account charts on this site: a heavy rollover year colliding with rates staying higher for longer is the scenario that tends to matter most for assets that move with how much money is circulating, crypto included — particularly when investors are already retreating into safer places to put it.

Others in macro — Interest rates and the supply of money — the backdrop crypto ultimately trades against.

• Consumer Price IndexHeadline inflation, year over year.
• Core PCEThe inflation measure the Federal Reserve actually targets.
• Unemployment RateLabour-market slack — half of the Fed’s dual mandate.
• Real GDPEconomic growth after inflation, quarter by quarter.
• NFCIA single index of how loose or tight US financial conditions are overall.

Every indicator we track — the full glossary.