Altseason Fair Value Band

This chart places the altcoin market — total crypto market cap outside Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets — against Bitcoin's market cap, and holds that ratio up to its long-run fair value: the average of every day since 2017, with a cycle-top line 1.5 standard deviations above it and a cycle-bottom line 1.5 below. Unlike a coin's price, the ratio does not trend upward; it swings around that average, so the lines are flat rather than rising. A risk reading of 0–100% shows where today's ratio sits between the two lines. The top line has historically marked the 2018 and 2021 altseason peaks and the bottom line the 2020 and 2026 lows; the 2024 peak stopped at 62. It is a cycle positioning tool for the altcoin market as a whole, not a coin picker.