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LTH vs STH Supply

BitcoinBitcoin (BTC)
Long-Term Holder Supply
Short-Term Holder Supply
BTC Price (USD)

Explanation

On-Chain

LTH vs STH Supply splits circulating Bitcoin supply into two cohorts and tracks how coins move between them over the cycle. Long-term holders (LTH) are coins untouched for 155 days or more; short-term holders (STH) are coins that moved more recently. A coin graduates to long-term the moment it crosses that threshold, and drops back the moment it spends, so the two supplies move opposite each other and together make up almost the entire circulating supply. Long-Term Holder Supply (green) has historically ground higher through bear markets as coins matured, peaking near cycle bottoms, and fallen during bull runs as holders sold into strength. Short-Term Holder Supply (amber) has swelled during bull markets as new buyers and turnover pushed coins into the short-term cohort, then drained away in bear markets. The STH % of Supply stat box is a quick gauge of which cohort currently dominates the float.

Quick Tip

Watch the handoff between cohorts. Bull markets have historically transferred coins from long-term holders to short-term holders, and bear markets have transferred them back. Periods where long-term supply climbed to new highs while price stayed depressed have often preceded the next major move.

Methodology note: Every UTXO is tagged by the age of the coin it spends: under 155 days sits in the short-term cohort, 155 days or older sits in long-term. Summing each cohort daily produces the two supply curves; LTH rising while STH falls describes coins concentrating into cohorts that, historically, have not moved for extended periods (a pattern that has coincided with late-bear and bottoming phases), while STH rising while LTH falls describes the reverse (a pattern that has coincided with bull-market-top phases). This is a slow, cycle-level metric, not a short-term signal, and should be read alongside price and the cost-basis metrics. Past cycle patterns are not a guarantee of future ones.

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LTH vs STH Supply

Bitcoin’s supply split by how long coins have sat still, and how coins pass between the two groups.

Read the guide