NUPL (Adaptive)

Methodology note: The published NUPL levels are 0.7 for euphoria and -0.15 for capitulation. Measured on our own data, every cycle has topped lower than the last: 0.869 (2011), 0.837 (2013), 0.796 (2017), 0.747 (2021) and 0.639 (2024-26). The 0.7 line has not printed since April 2021, and this cycle peaked below it. The lows were -0.76 in 2015, -0.44 in 2018, -0.14 in 2020 and -0.32 in 2022, so -0.15 missed the March 2020 crash. The cause is not the halving schedule: price swings compress as Bitcoin grows into a larger, steadier asset, and so does any measure of distance from the average cost basis. The overheated and value lines are therefore read from NUPL's own recent history, the 90th and 10th percentiles of a trailing 3.5 years. The reading sits beyond each adaptive line on roughly one day in ten, and the lines do not tag every turn: at the 2024 peak the reading (0.639) sat just under the overheated line (0.645). Every band uses only past data, so a past line is never redrawn with hindsight. An honest caveat: because the bands follow recent history, the value line currently sits above zero, so it can flag a relative low while holders are still in aggregate profit, unlike the old -0.15 line. It measures how extreme a reading is for the current era, not whether holders are underwater. Computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain, using our own market cap and realized cap series. Updated daily: each day the series adds the previous day's reading. Display begins in 2012, since 2011 realized-cap data is too thin to trust. These describe where the reading has sat before, not advice; past behaviour does not predict future prices.