The Bitcoin Heat Meter, explained

Inputs

14

weighted indicators, 0–100 each

On-chain & valuation

50%

six measures of what holders paid and mining costs

Largest single weight

AHR999 · 13

of 100 total

Output scale

0–100

undervalued → distribution

Our flagship indicator: a single 0–100 number that positions Bitcoin within its own market cycle by combining 14 individual indicators, each already scored 0–100 on its own, into one weighted average.

It exists on the premise that any single indicator can give a false signal, but 14 independent ones agreeing at once is a much harder thing to fake. Think of it as asking 14 different models a question and taking their weight-of-evidence answer instead of any one opinion.

Each of the 14 indicators is worked out on its own and reports its own 0–100 risk score — the same number you would see on that indicator's own chart, or for Fear & Greed, its 30-day average. The Heat Meter then blends all 14 into a single weighted average, giving each one the share shown in the diagram above.

The fourteen shares add up to exactly 100, and AHR999 carries the largest single share at 13, with Pi Cycle Top, Stock-to-Flow, NUPL and BDZ the smallest at 4 each. These are not fixed forever: we adjust them as the indicators are re-tested against how well each has called past cycles.

A gap in one indicator's reading is never treated as a zero, which would drag the whole score down. That indicator is simply left out for the day and the remaining thirteen share out its portion, so the score stays a fair average of what is actually known.

They split into four families. On-chain & valuation (50% of the total weight): NUPL, MVRV, Puell Multiple, Cost of Production, RHODL Ratio and AHR999. Technical & cycle (40%): Pi Cycle Top, Log Regression, Risk Wave, Stock-to-Flow, Bi-weekly RSI and BDZ. Macro (5%): ISM Manufacturing New Orders. Sentiment (5%): Fear & Greed, smoothed on a 30-day average.

Every one of those 14 also exists as its own standalone chart on Blockchain Decoded with its own detailed explanation — the Heat Meter doesn't invent a new measurement, it combines numbers that are already published individually.

Against eight known points in Bitcoin's own price history: four cycle bottoms — Nov 2011, Jan 2015, Dec 2018 and Nov 2022 — and four cycle tops — Jun 2011, Nov 2013, Dec 2017 and Nov 2021. The calibration panel on the live chart reads the composite score at the data point nearest each of those dates and averages the bottoms and tops separately, so a low average-bottom reading and a high average-top reading is the model showing its work.

It proves the model fits the history it was built on. The eight dates above are the same cycle events the 14 indicator weights were tuned against, so reading the score at 2013's top and finding it high isn't surprising if the weights were partly chosen because they read high in 2013.

That check is still worth having: every turning point and every score is laid out on the live chart, so you can see for yourself how closely the model tracks the history it claims to explain. What it does not tell you is how the next cycle will score.

Fitting the past and predicting the future are two different claims. The calibration panel only makes the first one.

The gauge is the headline, the 14-indicator grid is the audit trail. Every indicator can be toggled individually in the chart legend, which switches that indicator's line on or off for visual comparison — the score itself doesn't change when you toggle it. The shares are only redistributed when an indicator has no reading for the day.

The score runs on a five-band scale: roughly 0–20 is extreme undervaluation, 20–40 an accumulation zone at the cheap end of the cycle, 40–60 fair value, 60–80 late-cycle caution, and 80–100 distribution territory at the expensive end. The live page also shows a companion Bull Market Progress card directly above the gauge — a separate cycle-progress read on how far along the current cycle looks, worth checking against the Heat Meter rather than treating either alone as the final word.

The Bitcoin Heat Meter is a cycle-positioning gauge, not a price target and not a precise timing trigger. It tells you roughly where Bitcoin sits relative to its own history across 14 independent lenses at once — that breadth is the entire point of building a composite instead of watching any single line.

It is also the original the Ethereum Heat Meter was built from, re-weighted for Ethereum — and unlike that version, every one of these 14 inputs is a genuine Bitcoin measurement, with nothing borrowed from another asset.

Others in heat meters — Composite scores that weigh many indicators into one cycle reading.

• Ethereum Heat MeterThe same fourteen-indicator method applied to Ethereum, with weights tuned to how ETH leans on Bitcoin’s cycle.

Every indicator we track — the full glossary.