Cycle positioning · Ethereum
The Ethereum Heat Meter, explained
A 14-indicator composite cycle score for ETH — five gauges computed on Ethereum's own price, two that apply to any market, and seven borrowed from Bitcoin as correlated context. How the weighting works, and what that borrowing means for the score.
- Inputs
- 14
- ETH-native
- ≈45%
- BTC-proxy
- ≈42%
- Output scale
- 0–100
weighted indicators, 0–100 each
computed on ETH price directly
no ETH equivalent, borrowed from BTC
cold/undervalued → hot/overvalued
What is the Ethereum Heat Meter?
A composite score, 0 to 100, that positions Ethereum within its own market cycle. It works the same way the Bitcoin Heat Meter does: 14 individual indicators, each already scored 0–100, are combined into a single weighted average.
The number itself is only half the story. What matters is what feeds it: which of those 14 inputs are actually measuring Ethereum, and which ones are standing in for it.
How is the score built?
Every indicator reports its own 0–100 risk score, worked out exactly as it is on that indicator's own dedicated chart — and for the five ETH-native inputs below, that calculation runs on Ethereum's own price history rather than Bitcoin's. The Heat Meter then combines all 14 into one number, with each counting for the share shown in the diagram, and the shares add up to 100. We adjust those weights as the indicators are re-tested.
A gap in one indicator's reading is never treated as a zero, which would drag the whole score down. That indicator is simply left out for the day and the remaining thirteen share out its portion, so the score stays a fair average of what is actually known.
Which indicators are genuinely computed on Ethereum?
Five of the 14 are re-run on ETH's own price series rather than Bitcoin's: Risk Wave, Log Regression, Bi-weekly RSI, BDZ and Pi Cycle Top. Together they carry roughly 45% of the total weight — the largest single bucket, and the reason the score moves meaningfully with ETH's own price action rather than just tracking Bitcoin's.
Two more — Fear & Greed and ISM/USMNO — are not tied to any one asset. Fear & Greed reads overall crypto-market sentiment; ISM tracks a US manufacturing survey used here as a leading economic indicator. Neither is asset-specific in the first place, so applying them unchanged to ETH isn't a compromise. Together they add about 13%.
Which indicators are borrowed from Bitcoin, and why?
The remaining seven — AHR999, RHODL Ratio, MVRV, Puell Multiple, Cost of Production, NUPL and Stock-to-Flow — have no Ethereum equivalent to read, so they keep their Bitcoin values. Several are built on the economics of mining (Puell Multiple, Cost of Production), which stopped applying to Ethereum when it stopped being mined in 2022.
That's roughly 42% of the score — not a small amount. They stay in the composite as stand-ins for where the wider cycle sits: the reasoning is that Bitcoin's cycle phase carries real information about Ethereum's, given how closely the two have historically moved together, even though none of these seven are measuring Ethereum directly.
The weighting is a judgment call
The ETH weighting is our reasoned starting point, not a split tested against Ethereum's own cycle history. Treat it as our best current judgment rather than a proven model.
Seven of fourteen inputs are Bitcoin, not Ethereum
NUPL, MVRV, Puell Multiple, Stock-to-Flow, Cost of Production, RHODL and AHR999 have no Ethereum equivalent to measure, so they read Bitcoin values and carry roughly 42% of the score as correlated cycle context — not as facts about ETH itself.
A missing indicator never drags the score down
If one of the 14 has no reading for a day, it is left out rather than counted as zero, and the other thirteen share out its portion between them. The score stays a fair average of whatever is actually known that day.
It scores where ETH sits, not what it will do
This is a positioning gauge against Ethereum's own cycle history, not a price target or a call on the next few days. A hot reading has coincided with past ETH cycle tops — it does not guarantee the next one behaves the same way.
Why not just build ETH-native versions of all 14?
Some of them can't exist in the same form. Puell Multiple and Cost of Production are built on the economics of mining — what miners are paid, what their hardware and electricity cost — and that stopped applying to Ethereum the moment it moved to proof-of-stake in 2022, where the network is secured by people locking up ETH rather than by miners running machines. Others, like Stock-to-Flow, depend on a fixed, predictable schedule for new supply, which Ethereum has not had since that switch: its supply now partly shrinks and partly grows with the rewards paid to those stakers.
Rather than drop those seven indicators — and their combined 42% of the score — entirely, they're kept as Bitcoin readings on the working assumption that Bitcoin's cycle position still tells you something about where the broader market, ETH included, sits. That is a judgment call rather than a proven result, so the full split is laid out above for you to weigh.
Less than half the score is measuring Ethereum directly. The rest is a bet that Bitcoin's cycle still tells you something about ETH's.
How do you read the Ethereum Heat Meter chart?
The composite gauge is the headline, the 14-indicator grid is the audit trail. On the live chart each indicator can be switched on and off individually, so if the composite moves you can check whether it was the ETH-based indicators driving it or the Bitcoin stand-ins shifting underneath.
The chart also shows a calibration panel — the average composite reading at Ethereum's own historical cycle bottoms (Jan 2016, Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Jun 2022) and tops (Jun 2017, Jan 2018, May 2021, Nov 2021), so a current reading can be compared against how the score has actually behaved at ETH's own turning points rather than an assumed range.
Where it fits
The Ethereum Heat Meter is a cycle-positioning gauge for ETH specifically, built on the same 14 indicators as the Bitcoin Heat Meter and re-weighted for Ethereum. It is free to view; the historical risk-level projection table is a Plus-tier feature.
Read it alongside the Bitcoin Heat Meter rather than in isolation. If both read hot or both read cold together, that agreement carries more weight than either alone — and it's a useful sanity check given how much of the ETH score is, by design, a reading of Bitcoin.
Common questions
What is the Ethereum Heat Meter?
A 0–100 composite score that estimates where Ethereum sits within its own market cycle. It's a weighted blend of 14 indicators — moving-average and technical models re-computed on ETH's own price history, plus macro and sentiment gauges, plus several on-chain and mining measures that Blockchain Decoded still takes from Bitcoin, because Ethereum has no equivalent.
Is the Ethereum Heat Meter the same as the Bitcoin Heat Meter?
It uses the same 14 indicators and the same weighted average, but the weights are set separately for each asset. Five indicators — Risk Wave, Log Regression, Bi-weekly RSI, BDZ and Pi Cycle Top — are recomputed on ETH price rather than BTC price, and as a bucket they carry more weight on Ethereum (45%) than the equivalent five carry on Bitcoin (36%) — though not every individual weight moved the same way: Log Regression is actually lower on ETH (9) than on Bitcoin (11).
Why does the Ethereum Heat Meter use Bitcoin data?
Seven of the 14 inputs — NUPL, MVRV, Puell Multiple, Stock-to-Flow, Cost of Production, RHODL and AHR999 — are on-chain or mining measures with no Ethereum equivalent to read (some, like Puell Multiple and Cost of Production, are built on mining economics, and Ethereum stopped being mined in 2022). They stay in as stand-ins for where the wider cycle sits, on the reasoning that Bitcoin's cycle phase carries real information about ETH's, given how closely the two have historically moved together — but they are not measurements of Ethereum itself.
How much of the Ethereum Heat Meter score is actually about Ethereum?
By weight, about 45% comes from indicators measured on Ethereum's own price history, about 13% from economic and sentiment readings that apply to any market, and about 42% from the seven that read Bitcoin's cycle. We adjust those weights as the indicators are re-tested, and the split is published in full above so you can see exactly what it is.
What do the Heat Meter score ranges mean?
The composite runs 0–100 on a cold-to-hot gradient: roughly 0–20 reads as deeply undervalued, 20–40 as cool, 40–60 as neutral, 60–80 as warm, and 80–100 as hot/overvalued relative to Ethereum’s own cycle history. These are descriptive bands on the gauge, not hard trading signals.
Related guides
Others in heat meters — Composite scores that weigh many indicators into one cycle reading.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
See where ETH sits right now
Everything above is the method. On the chart you get the live composite score, the full 14-indicator grid with each one toggleable, and the calibration panel against ETH's own cycle pivots.