On-chain · Composite
On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal, explained
A count, from zero to four, of how many of four on-chain conditions hold at once. What the four conditions are, how the weekly view is built, what the history shows about when all four held, and why a count is not a prediction.
- Measures
- Conditions met
- All four
- < 1% of days
- Shown
- Weekly
- Updated
- Daily
how many of four on-chain conditions hold, from 0 to 4
the rare state is the conjunction, since 2013
each week scores its strongest single day
each day adds the previous day's reading
What does it count?
Four separate on-chain conditions can each be answered with yes or no on any day. This chart adds them up. A reading of 0 means none hold, and 4 means all four hold at the same time.
It is a count of conditions. It does not weight them, and it does not predict anything.
The four conditions
Supply in profit below 50 percent: more coins are underwater than in profit. Hash ribbon contracting: the 30-day average of mining power sits below the 60-day average. Price below the 2-year cost basis: Bitcoin trades under the average price of coins that moved in the last two years. Long-term holders accumulating: the supply of coins unspent for more than 155 days is higher than it was 30 days earlier.
Each is worked out with the identical definition used by its own chart, so the count and those four charts always agree. Each of them has its own guide.
How the weekly view is built
The chart draws Bitcoin’s price weekly, because this is a long-horizon indicator. Each week takes the highest count reached on any single day of that week, so a brief alignment on one day is shown and not lost to a weaker close. A blue band marks the weeks that reached four, and a lighter band marks the weeks that reached three, which is off by default.
The data is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain, and the chart starts in 2013, where all four conditions exist.
What the history shows
A single condition is common. Long-term holder accumulation has held on more than half of all days since 2013, price has been under the 2-year cost basis on about a third, the hash ribbon has been contracting on about one day in six, and supply in profit has been under 50 percent on about one day in fourteen. The rare state is several at once: three hold on about one day in ten, and all four held on only 39 days, which is under 1 percent.
Those 39 days fall in 12 short stretches in four periods: May 2015, November 2018, December 2022 and June to July 2026. At the exact price lows, three of four held in January 2015, December 2018 and March 2020, and two held in November 2022. In November 2018 all four held for two days a month before the low, and price then fell about 42 percent more. When three held, the missing one was most often supply in profit below 50 percent, then the hash ribbon, then long-term holder accumulation.
What the chart does not tell you
A count with the word signal in its name feels like a verdict, which is when it is easiest to over-read. Five things to keep in view.
A count of four is not a prediction
In November 2018 all four conditions held for two days, a month before the price low, when price was still far above where it would end up. It then fell about 42 percent more, to its low of December 2018. Four conditions holding says that those conditions hold, and nothing about what price does next.
The sample is small
Since 2013, all four have held together on 39 days, in 12 short stretches that fall in four periods: May 2015, November 2018, December 2022 and June to July 2026. That is a handful of events, and a handful is too few to build a rule on.
It has not lit on the exact low
At the four price lows of January 2015, December 2018, March 2020 and November 2022, three of the four conditions held at the first three, and two at the last. The count has been highest near past lows, not on the lowest day.
Each condition carries its own limits
The four are built from their own charts, and each has caveats of its own: coins moving between wallets count as moves, hashrate contractions follow every halving, and a price under the cost basis is common. The count inherits all of them.
A week scores its best day, not its average
The weekly view gives each week the highest count reached on any single day, so a one-day alignment is never lost. The cost is that a week at four may have had all four holding together for only one day of the seven.
Four conditions holding is a fact about those conditions. It cannot show what price does next.
Where it fits
This is an on-chain composite with no risk score of its own. It is built from four charts in the on-chain suite and does not read any other chart’s pipeline. It is not an input to either Heatmeter. It is most useful next to its four ingredient charts, to see which conditions hold and which do not.
Common questions
What does the On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal count?
Four conditions, each a yes or no on any given day: supply in profit is below 50 percent, the hash ribbon is contracting, price is below the 2-year cost basis, and long-term holders are accumulating. The chart adds up how many are yes, from 0 to 4.
Where do the four conditions come from?
Each one is worked out with the identical definition used by its own chart in the suite, so the count and the four charts always agree. Each of those charts has its own guide.
Why is it shown weekly?
It is a long-horizon indicator, so the chart draws it weekly. Each week takes the highest count reached on any single day of that week, so a brief alignment on one day is shown and not lost to a weaker weekly close.
How often has all four held?
Rarely. Since 2013, all four have held on 39 days, which is under 1 percent of days. The blue band on the chart marks those weeks, 11 of the 707 weeks in the history.
What does three of four mean?
Three conditions hold and one does not. That is more common, about one day in ten since 2013. The condition missing on those days was most often supply in profit below 50 percent, then the hash ribbon, then long-term holder accumulation. The lighter band for these weeks is off by default.
Why does it count and not weight?
A single condition is common and says little. Long-term holder accumulation has held on more than half of all days, and price has been under the 2-year cost basis on about a third. The rare state is several at once, so the chart simply counts how many hold.
How often does it update?
Once a day. Each day the series adds the previous day's reading, and the days already on the chart do not change.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. The word signal is in its name, but it is a count and not a call. It describes how many conditions hold, and the conditions have held at different times relative to past price lows, so it is a historical observation and not a guide to what happens next.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- Stock-to-FlowThe scarcity model that values Bitcoin from its issuance rate, shown with its deviation from actual price.
- Exchange FlowCoins moving on and off major exchanges, as a daily net flow with a 7-day average, ranked against its own history.
- Volume MomentumTrading volume against its own yearly baseline — speculative heat rather than price.
- AHR999Compares today’s price with what buyers have typically paid over the long run — built for spotting cheap stretches.
- Puell MultipleThe daily value of newly issued coins against its yearly average — miner revenue as a cycle signal.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the chart
Everything above is the method. On the chart you can see the weekly count, the blue band for weeks that reached four, the lighter band for three, and Bitcoin’s price alongside.