Valuation · Bitcoin
AHR999, explained
A Bitcoin valuation index born on a Chinese trading forum in 2019 — the ratio that compares today’s price against two different long-run measures of what Bitcoin has cost, to flag the stretches that have historically been cheap. How it works, where its limits are, and how we turn it into a 0–100 score.
- Bottom zone
- < 0.45
- DCA zone
- 0.45–1.2
- Top warning
- ≥ 4
- Published
- 2019
historically strong-buy territory
the steady-buying range
reduce-risk territory
on a Chinese Bitcoin forum
What is AHR999?
A Bitcoin valuation index that compares today's price against two different long-run baselines at once, then multiplies the results into a single number. When that number sits low, price is cheap relative to both baselines at the same time — historically the setup behind major cycle bottoms. When it sits high, price has run far ahead of both.
It was published in early 2019 on a Chinese Bitcoin trading community, under the forum handle it's still known by today — AHR999 isn't an acronym for anything, it's simply the name of whoever posted it. Unlike most cycle indicators built for traders, it was explicitly designed as a dollar-cost-averaging tool — for people buying a set amount at regular intervals: a way to decide when that regular buy deserved to be bigger than usual, not a signal for timing one large entry.
How is it actually calculated?
The published formula multiplies two ratios. The first compares price against the average price of the last 200 days — a medium-term anchor for what recent buyers have, on average, paid. The second compares price against a long-term valuation curve, a fair-value line fitted to Bitcoin's entire price history since its first block. Multiply the two ratios together and you get the AHR999 value.
The number on our chart is that finished index as CoinGlass publishes it — the standard AHR999 everyone else quotes, rather than a reconstruction of our own. If CoinGlass changes how it calculates the index, the reading here changes with it.
What do the 0.45, 1.2 and 4 thresholds mean?
Three classic bands, unchanged from the original 2019 publication and used exactly as published on our chart:
Below 0.45 is the Bottom Zone — the strongest buying signal the index gives, historically associated with deep bear-market lows. 0.45 to 1.2 is the DCA Zone, the range the index was built around: conditions historically favourable for continued or increased dollar-cost-averaging. 4 and above is the Top Warning zone, historically coinciding with overheated, late-cycle pricing.
Where are its limits?
Very low readings have shown up around several major Bitcoin bottoms, including the 2015, 2018 and 2022 lows. It is still a single measure built on assumptions drawn from one asset's early history, and it deserves the same caution as any indicator of that age.
The standard index, not a version of our own
The value on our chart is AHR999 as CoinGlass publishes it — the same number quoted everywhere else, not a variant we have reworked. If CoinGlass changes how it calculates the index, the reading here changes with it.
It was built for one asset, one strategy
AHR999 was designed around Bitcoin’s specific price history and around dollar-cost averaging — buying a set amount at regular intervals — rather than picking one moment to buy everything at once. Reading it as a precise buy/sell trigger asks more of it than its own design intends.
The zone levels were set against Bitcoin’s earlier cycles
The thresholds — 0.45, 1.2 and 4 — were fixed when the index was published in 2019. As the long-run valuation line both halves of the ratio are measured against keeps rising, later cycles have less obvious room to revisit the same levels the index saw early on.
It says nothing about timing within a zone
The DCA zone has spanned periods lasting months to well over a year. Being inside that range tells you conditions are historically favourable — it does not tell you whether the range opens wider before it closes.
How do we turn AHR999 into a risk score?
The classic thresholds decide the zone label you see — Bottom Zone, DCA Zone, Top Warning, or Neutral / High Risk in between. The 0–100 risk score that feeds our Heat Meters answers a different question: how today's reading compares with every reading in the index's history. A score of 80 means today sits higher than 80% of all the days on record.
The two layers meet in one specific place: inside the broad middle band — between the DCA upper bound of 1.2 and the top-warning level of 4 — the zone label escalates from "Neutral" to "High Risk" once that score reaches 80. Outside that middle band, the fixed 0.45 / 1.2 / 4 thresholds decide the zone on their own, whatever the score says.
AHR999 was built to answer one question for one strategy: should today's DCA buy be bigger than usual? Everything since has been people asking it questions it was never designed to answer.
How do you read the AHR999 chart?
Zone first, exact value second. The three named zones carry the real information — whether today sits in Bottom, DCA, Neutral, High Risk or Top Warning territory matters more than whether the raw value is 0.41 or 0.44.
Time inside the DCA zone, not a single day. AHR999 was designed around regular buying, not a single entry. Historically it has spent extended stretches — sometimes over a year — inside the DCA zone rather than flashing it for one day and moving on.
Where it fits
AHR999 is a valuation indicator — it answers whether Bitcoin is cheap or expensive against two long-run yardsticks at once. It doesn't call exact entries or exits, and outside the DCA zone it was built for, it says less about the next few weeks than indicators designed for timing.
It carries real weight in both Heat Meters: 13% of the Bitcoin score — the largest of its fourteen inputs — and 11% of the Ethereum one, where it is still measured from Bitcoin's own price history. We adjust those weights as the indicators are re-tested. In neither Heat Meter does AHR999 alone decide the score — it's the loudest single voice in a panel of fourteen, not the only one.
Common questions
What does AHR999 stand for?
Nothing — it is the forum handle of the person who published the index on a Chinese Bitcoin trading community in early 2019, and the name stuck to the indicator itself.
How is the AHR999 index calculated?
The classic formula multiplies two ratios: today’s price divided by the average price over the last 200 days, times today’s price divided by a long-run valuation line fitted to Bitcoin’s whole price history. The finished index value on our chart comes from CoinGlass.
What do the 0.45, 1.2 and 4 thresholds mean?
They’re the classic published bands. Below 0.45 has historically marked a bottom zone — the strongest buying signal the index gives. Between 0.45 and 1.2 is the DCA zone, the range the index was originally built to identify for dollar-cost averaging. At or above 4 is a top-warning zone, historically associated with overheated, late-cycle pricing.
Where does Blockchain Decoded get its AHR999 data?
From CoinGlass, which publishes the finished index. The reading on our chart refreshes at least hourly.
How does Blockchain Decoded turn AHR999 into a risk score?
The 0–100 risk score is where today’s AHR999 reading sits against every reading in its history: a score of 80 means today is higher than 80% of all the days on record. The classic 0.45 / 1.2 / 4 thresholds still decide the zone label (Bottom Zone, DCA Zone, Top Warning) shown alongside the score; inside the broad 1.2–4 middle range, the zone additionally escalates to ‘High Risk’ once that score reaches 80.
Is a low AHR999 reading always a buy signal?
No. It flags that price sits historically low against both of its long-run yardsticks — the condition under which past cycle bottoms have formed — not a guarantee that today is one. It’s one of fourteen inputs in our Heat Meters, not a standalone trading signal.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- Puell MultipleThe daily value of newly issued coins against its yearly average — miner revenue as a cycle signal.
- Cost of ProductionA modelled miner cost floor from difficulty and issuance, and how far price trades above it.
- RHODL RatioThe balance between recently moved coins and long-dormant ones, which peaks near cycle tops.
- STH Realized PriceThe average price at which short-term holders bought — support in a bull market, resistance in a bear.
- Supply in Profit / Loss (NUPL)How much of all the Bitcoin out there is sitting on a paper profit, mapped to phases from panic to euphoria.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
See where it stands right now
Everything above is the index on its own terms. The live chart plots price against the long-run baseline the index is built on, with the zone bands marked and our 0–100 risk score on top. That score also carries the largest single weighting of any of the fourteen inputs behind the Bitcoin Heat Meter.