Cost basis · Bitcoin on-chain
STH Realized Price, explained
The average price recent buyers paid, turned into a live support-and-resistance line — how the ~155-day cost basis works, why it carries no risk score at all, and what "premium" actually means here.
- Holder window
- ~155 days
- Data source
- CoinGlass
- Shows
- In profit / in loss
- Reads as
- Support ⇄ resistance
coins last moved within this window
short-term-holder cost basis
plus the premium against cost basis
above the line vs below it
What is STH Realized Price?
The average price paid by short-term holders — wallets holding coins that last moved within roughly 155 days. It is a live cost-basis line for the most recent, most reactive layer of buyers in the market.
Blockchain Decoded doesn't work this out itself. The line arrives from CoinGlass's on-chain data already calculated and is drawn alongside the BTC price — the only figure worked out here is the premium or discount against the live price.
Why does it act as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear?
Short-term holders are the "jumpy hands" of the market: the newest buyers, with the least conviction and the most reactive behaviour. Their average entry price behaves like a psychological line in the sand.
When price sits above the STH cost basis, recent buyers are in profit. Dips toward that line tend to attract buying from people defending their breakeven — which is what makes it act as support. When price falls below the STH cost basis, that same crowd is now underwater. Rallies back up to the line tend to run into relieved sellers exiting at breakeven, flipping it into resistance.
Why ~155 days?
The ~155-day window is a threshold set by the on-chain data provider, not a figure Blockchain Decoded computes or adjusts. It is fixed — it does not widen or narrow with volatility, cycle phase, or anything else. Coins that last moved further back than that window fall out of the short-term-holder cost basis; coins that moved more recently count toward it.
What do the stat boxes actually show?
The chart pairs BTC Price and STH Cost Basis on the same log axis, plus two derived numbers:
Premium / Discount — (live price ÷ cost basis − 1) × 100 — how far above (+) or below (−) the cost basis price is currently trading. Status — a plain binary, In Profit or In Loss, set by whether live price is at or above the latest cost basis.
That's the entire calculation. No 0–100 score, no colour-coded bands — this is the one on-chain chart here that gives you the level itself and leaves the judgement to you.
What does a deep discount actually mean?
When price sits well below the cost basis — a large negative premium — short-term holders are deep in loss on paper. That kind of pain is what historically clears out the least committed buyers: they give up and sell, selling pressure runs out of sellers, and the conditions for a bottom start to form. It is a read on stress, not a prediction of timing.
It has no risk score
Almost every other on-chain indicator here turns its signal into a 0–100 risk score. This one gives you the level itself instead: the cost-basis line, a premium or discount percentage against it, and a plain In Profit / In Loss status.
It stands alone, not inside a composite
STH Realized Price is not one of the weighted inputs behind the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heatmeter score. It gives you one clean read on where recent buyers broke even, to weigh alongside the composite rather than inside it.
The cost basis comes from the data provider
Blockchain Decoded does not work out the short-term-holder cost basis itself. It arrives already calculated from CoinGlass's on-chain data and is shown unchanged — the only figure worked out here is the premium or discount against the live price.
A fixed ~155-day cutoff
What counts as "short-term" is a threshold set by the on-chain data provider, not something this platform tunes or adjusts. It does not shift with volatility or cycle phase, so the definition of "recent buyer" is the same in a quiet market as in a violent one.
The same line is support when the recent crowd is happy and resistance the moment they aren't — it's the same breakeven, just read from opposite sides.
How do you read the STH Realized Price chart?
Watch the crossings, not just the gap. Price reclaiming the cost basis from below has historically been an early sign that momentum is shifting back up. Losing it from above is an early warning that recent buyers are underwater and the market has turned fragile.
Use it for confirmation, not as a trigger. With no risk score and no thresholds, this chart is a level to watch and cross-check against price and other indicators — not a standalone buy or sell signal on its own.
Where it fits
STH Realized Price is a cost-basis read for one specific group: the market's newest, most reactive buyers. It says nothing about long-term-holder conviction, valuation multiples, or cycle timing — those are separate charts on this platform.
Unlike AHR999, Puell Multiple, RHODL Ratio and NUPL, it is not one of the 14 weighted inputs behind the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heat Meter score, and it is the only on-chain chart here with no 0–100 reading. That makes it a standalone read worth pairing with the composite, rather than something the composite already accounts for.
Common questions
What is STH Realized Price?
The average price short-term holders — wallets that last moved their coins within roughly 155 days — paid for their Bitcoin. It's a live cost-basis line: price trading above it means recent buyers are sitting on a profit on paper, price trading below it means they are underwater.
Why does price above the line act as support and below it act as resistance?
Recent buyers with a profit tend to defend their entry: dips down toward their breakeven attract buying, which is what makes the cost basis behave like support while price sits above it. Once price falls below that line, the same crowd is now underwater, so any rally back up to breakeven tends to meet relieved sellers exiting flat — flipping the same line into resistance.
Why ~155 days, and who decides that?
The roughly 155-day window is a threshold set by the on-chain data provider — the same source the whole indicator comes from — and isn't something Blockchain Decoded works out or adjusts. The cost-basis line arrives from CoinGlass already calculated and is shown as it is.
What does the Premium/Discount stat mean?
It is the live BTC price compared to the latest STH cost basis, as a percentage: (live price ÷ cost basis − 1) × 100. A positive premium means price is trading above the cost basis (in profit); a negative one — a discount — means it is trading below it (in loss).
Is STH Realized Price part of the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heatmeter?
No. Neither the Bitcoin nor the Ethereum Heatmeter weight map includes an STH Realized Price input — it is a standalone chart, not one of the composite's weighted indicators.
Does it work as a hard buy or sell signal?
No, and it isn't built to. It carries no risk score and no threshold levels — just the cost-basis line, the live price, and a profit-or-loss status. It's a support/resistance read to weigh alongside other signals, not a standalone trigger.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- Supply in Profit / Loss (NUPL)How much of all the Bitcoin out there is sitting on a paper profit, mapped to phases from panic to euphoria.
- Stock-to-FlowThe scarcity model that values Bitcoin from its issuance rate, shown with its deviation from actual price.
- Volume MomentumTrading volume against its own yearly baseline — speculative heat rather than price.
- AHR999Compares today’s price with what buyers have typically paid over the long run — built for spotting cheap stretches.
- Puell MultipleThe daily value of newly issued coins against its yearly average — miner revenue as a cycle signal.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
See the live chart, not the schematic
Everything above is the mechanism. On the live STH Realized Price chart you get the real cost-basis line plotted against BTC price, the current premium or discount, and the profit/loss status — updated daily, free with an account.