RHODL Ratio, explained

Compares

1wk ÷ 1–2yr

coin value grouped by age

Risk scoring

Percentile

rank against its full history, 0–100

BTC weight

11%

of the 14-input Bitcoin Heatmeter

ETH weight

8%

of the 14-input Ethereum Heatmeter

A single number built by grouping Bitcoin's coins by how long they have sat untouched. Take the realized cap — the value of every coin counted at the price it last moved at — of coins that last moved within the past week, divide it by the realized cap of coins that last moved between one and two years ago, then multiply by the age of the Bitcoin market in days to allow for coins that are permanently lost or simply never move. It was created by Philip Swift as a way to compare freshly-active coin value against long-untouched coin value in one ratio.

The ratio itself is worked out by CoinGlass and we take the finished number — the same approach we use for the other blockchain-based indicators in this family, like MVRV and NUPL.

Both bands come from the same underlying figures — coin value sliced by how long each coin has sat since it last moved. The one-week band captures coins that are actively changing hands right now: new buying, new selling, short-term trading. The one-to-two-year band captures coins whose owners have sat still through an entire earlier phase of the market — a rough stand-in for longer-term conviction.

Comparing the two turns two separate age slices into one measure: is Bitcoin dominated right now by fresh, recently-active value, or by value that has been sitting quiet for a year or more?

Late in a bull run, long-term holders who have sat through the whole preceding downturn typically start spending some of those untouched coins into the rally, while new money keeps arriving and changing hands quickly. Both effects push the one-week band up relative to the one-to-two-year band, and the ratio widens.

That widening has historically lined up with the later, giddier stretch of past Bitcoin cycles — which is why RHODL sits with the cycle-top indicators rather than the short-term trading ones. It isn't predicting a specific date; it's describing a shift in whose coins are actually moving.

It has broadly followed the shape of past Bitcoin cycles — a widening ratio into stretched, late-cycle conditions, a narrowing ratio through the quieter stretches when holders sit still. Like every indicator here, it comes with limits worth knowing.

No single RHODL value is treated as "this is the top." Instead, every new reading is ranked against the entire history of RHODL values on record. The risk score is that ranking — the share of all past days with an equal or lower value, expressed as a number from 0 to 100.

A reading of 85 means today's RHODL is higher than roughly 85% of every day on record, whatever the raw ratio happens to be. That score is mapped straight onto five 20-point bands — Extreme Undervaluation, Undervalued, Fair Value, Overvalued, Extreme Overvaluation — the same five labels we use on every indicator scored this way, so the words mean the same thing whichever chart you're on.

RHODL doesn't ask whether the ratio crossed some fixed line. It asks whether long-untouched coins are starting to move.

Watch the trend of the risk score, not a single day. A steadily climbing score means the holders of older coins are getting more active relative to short-term traders — worth watching alongside price, not acting on by itself.

Low readings aren't a buy signal on their own. They describe a market where recently-active coin value is small relative to long-untouched coin value — the quieter stretches when holders sit still, not a guarantee that price stops falling.

RHODL reads the blockchain itself — holder behaviour seen through coin age, rather than price moves or market mood. It appears in both our Bitcoin and Ethereum Heatmeters as one of fourteen ingredients in the overall cycle score, alongside indicators that measure completely different things — timing signals built from price averages, the economics of mining, market mood, value measures like MVRV. It currently carries 11% of the Bitcoin Heat Meter and 8% of the Ethereum one, and we adjust those weights as the indicators are re-tested. In neither case does RHODL alone decide the score — it's one voice in a panel of fourteen.

Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.

• STH Realized PriceThe average price at which short-term holders bought — support in a bull market, resistance in a bear.
• Supply in Profit / Loss (NUPL)How much of all the Bitcoin out there is sitting on a paper profit, mapped to phases from panic to euphoria.
• Stock-to-FlowThe scarcity model that values Bitcoin from its issuance rate, shown with its deviation from actual price.
• Volume MomentumTrading volume against its own yearly baseline — speculative heat rather than price.
• AHR999Compares today’s price with what buyers have typically paid over the long run — built for spotting cheap stretches.

Every indicator we track — the full glossary.