Everything vs BTC, explained

Input

BTC.D

Bitcoin dominance, daily

Range used

44–66%

dominance floor / ceiling

Smoothing

5-day average

applied to the score

Spike filter

±3 std dev

vs the surrounding 15 days

A single number, 0 to 100, that reads how much of the crypto market's attention has rotated away from Bitcoin and into everything else. It's built entirely from Bitcoin dominance — BTC.D, the percentage of the entire crypto market's value that Bitcoin represents — held to a fixed range, turned upside down, and smoothed.

No altcoin prices go into the score directly. The whole read comes from watching Bitcoin's slice of the pie shrink and grow.

Dominance on its own tells you Bitcoin's market-cap share. It doesn't tell you what to do with that information, and read literally it points the wrong way for altcoin risk: a rising number sounds like strength, when in this context rising dominance means capital is leaving altcoins, not entering them.

So the score flips it. Bitcoin dominance is held to a 44–66% range, rescaled to 0–100, and then turned upside down: 100 minus that value. High dominance (near 66%) becomes a low score — alts are starved, historically closer to the start of a rotation outward. Low dominance (near 44%) becomes a high score — alts have already absorbed a large share of capital, historically closer to the end of that move.

Those bounds bracket the range Bitcoin dominance has occupied across recent multi-year cycles, and holding dominance inside them keeps the scale steady: without that, a dominance reading outside historical norms could push the score below 0 or above 100. As it is, values past either bound simply get pulled back to the nearest one before scoring.

The cost: if dominance keeps moving further past 66% or below 44%, the risk score doesn't follow it. It sits pinned at 0 or 100 and goes flat — exactly when dominance is at its most extreme and, arguably, most informative.

Before any of that, each day's dominance reading is checked against the fifteen days around it (seven either side). If it sits more than three standard deviations from the average of its neighbours — far enough from the recent norm to look like a bad reading rather than a real move — it is dropped instead of scored.

After scoring, a 5-day average smooths the result, so a single noisy day doesn't flip the reading. Both steps trade a little responsiveness for stability — sensible most of the time, but it means a genuinely fast, real dominance move can be softened or arrive a few days late, along with the noise the filter is there to catch.

The smoothed score is sorted into five bands:

• 0–20 · Strong Buy — “Low Risk – Bullish for Alts”
• 20–35 · Buy — “Low-Moderate Risk”
• 35–65 · Hold — “Moderate Risk – Neutral”
• 65–80 · Sell — “High Risk – Bearish for Alts”
• 80–100 · Strong Sell — “Very High Risk – Avoid Alts”

Four things worth knowing before you lean on the score:

It measures where the crowd's attention has moved, not whether what they moved into is actually worth owning.

Alongside the risk score, the chart plots a second line: an altcoin-market-versus-Bitcoin ratio, measured independently of the dominance figure that drives the score. It's a visual cross-check — when the ratio and the dominance-derived risk score are telling the same story, that agreement carries more weight than the risk score alone.

It is a second opinion rather than a second input. The risk score is complete without it, so where the comparison line isn't showing, the score beside it is still current.

A cold reading means Bitcoin, not alts, has the crowd's attention. A low score is the setup phase — dominance is high, alts are relatively unloved, and history says that's more often the start of a rotation outward than the end of one.

Red means the rotation has already happened. A high score is dominance near the bottom of that 44–66% range — alts have absorbed a large share of capital already. It says nothing about which alts, or whether the move has further to run; it only says the rotation is mature.

It isn't a Heatmeter input. Unlike most of the indicators in this knowledge base, Everything vs BTC doesn't feed into the Bitcoin Heatmeter or the Ethereum Heatmeter composite score. It runs as its own read on capital rotation, on its own dedicated chart.

Others in price & cycle models — What price is doing relative to its own history, trend and long-run models.

• Moving AveragesEighteen moving averages across Daily, Weekly and Monthly views, with the Bull Market Support Band and the Golden/Death Cross.
• Pi Cycle TopTwo moving averages — the 111-day and the doubled 350-day — whose crossing has landed within days of three Bitcoin cycle peaks.
• Pi Cycle BottomThe Pi Cycle Top upside down: two average-price lines used to spot the bottom of a cycle rather than the top.
• Log Regression BandPrice against a long-run trend line drawn through each coin’s whole history, split into six value zones.
• Rainbow ChartThe same long-run trend line drawn as nine coloured bands, from deep value to bubble territory.

Every indicator we track — the full glossary.