Risk Rotation, explained

Coins scored

100

largest by market cap

Base average

374d

each coin’s own price

Wide gap

40+

points between the pair

Refresh

~12 h

scores rebuilt twice a day

It scores the 100 largest coins by market cap from 0 to 100 and lays them out in two ranked columns: one running from the highest score down, the other from the lowest score up. Each column has its own range slider and search box, so either side can be narrowed to part of the scale or to a single coin. Above the columns, four tiles give the number of coins scored, the highest and lowest scores, and the average.

Picking one coin from each column makes a rotation pair: the two cards at the top read “Rotation pair · higher risk” and “Rotation pair · lower risk”. Below them, a chart and a set of statistics compare the two over the history they share.

Every coin runs through the Risk Wave formula with the same settings as the Risk Wave chart. It takes the gap between the coin’s price and its own 374-day moving average on a log scale, multiplies it by the number of days of history raised to the power 0.395, and places the result between the highest and lowest values that coin has ever produced. That gives a number from 0 to 100, the same reading the Risk Wave chart shows for that coin.

The important consequence is that every coin is scored against its own history. An 80 on Bitcoin says Bitcoin is near the top of its own range; an 80 on a smaller coin says the same about that coin. The two are not the same amount of risk, and the score does not claim they are. Younger coins also have less history behind their score: a coin needs at least 400 days of prices to be scored, and one with only a few years has a shorter range for today’s price to sit in.

The list starts from the largest coins by market cap. Stablecoins, wrapped tokens (such as wrapped Bitcoin and wrapped ether, which only repeat their underlying coin) and tokenized treasury and money-market funds are left out. A coin whose daily price has barely moved over the last 90 days, with a typical daily move under 0.3%, is also left out, since that is how a yield-bearing fund behaves rather than a traded coin. The first 100 that remain are scored, and any without enough history are not listed.

The comparison chart covers every day both coins have prices, and has four views. Performance shows each coin’s percentage change from the first shared day. Price shows the two prices. Risk shows both scores over time on the same 0 to 100 scale. Pair Ratio shows the higher-risk coin’s price divided by the lower-risk coin’s, with the average of the two scores drawn alongside.

Everyone can see every score. Free accounts can compare Bitcoin and Ethereum; Plus opens the five largest coins by market cap, and Complete and Lifetime open the full list.

The rotation gap is the difference between the two scores on the latest shared day. The card above the statistics labels it a wide rotation gap at 40 points or more, a moderate one from 25 to 39, and a narrow one below 25, where both coins sit in a similar part of their own ranges. Because each score is measured against its own coin’s history, the gap compares two positions in two different ranges.

Four tiles sit beside it. Relative performance over 90 days and over one year is the higher-risk coin’s price change minus the lower-risk coin’s, in percentage points. Correlation measures how closely their daily returns have moved together over the last 90 days, from −1 to 1; 0.7 or above reads as mostly moving together, 0.3 or below as often moving independently. Risk trends mark each score as rising or falling when it has changed by more than 3 points over the last 30 days, and flat otherwise. Where two coins share too little history for a window, the tile says so instead of showing a number.

Prices, market caps and each coin’s full daily price history come from CoinGecko. The Risk Wave model and the scores built on it are our own. The board is rebuilt about every 12 hours, and the page shows when it was last updated.

Others in tools — Product features built around the indicators above, not single-metric charts.

• MarketsA clean daily price chart for one asset at a time, crypto or traditional, on a log scale by default, with nothing layered on top.
• Pattern AnalyzerSearches an asset’s history for windows that moved like today, scores the match, and projects what happened next.
• Economic CalendarScheduled economic releases and central-bank decisions for the next 15 days, each scored 0–100 for how big a market moment it is.

Every indicator we track — the full glossary.