The Pattern Analyzer, explained

Score blend

40 / 60

direction · shape

Matches shown

Up to 10

the closest ones, overlaps removed

Shortest pattern

14 days

the least you can select

Searches

All history

every stretch the asset has on record

You select a stretch of an asset’s recent price action. The tool then searches the rest of that asset’s entire history — every possible stretch of the same length — for ones that moved the same way. Each match gets a similarity score, and the price path that actually followed it is redrawn from today’s price, running forward from your selection, as a “ghost” line.

It is not looking for the named shapes chartists talk about — head-and-shoulders, double tops. It compares the numbers themselves: given this exact sequence of price moves, when has the market moved this way before?

Two things feed the score. Direction asks whether the two stretches rose and fell together, day by day, however big or small each day’s move was. Shape asks how far apart the two lines sit once both are redrawn at the same size — does the path look the same, whatever price level either of them happened at.

The two are blended 40% direction, 60% shape. That split is a judgement call rather than something tuned or derived — it leans slightly harder on the shape of the move than on strict day-by-day agreement, because two patterns that look the same on a chart are what a person is actually asking to see.

Any stretch of history that moved in the opposite direction to your selection is dropped before it’s even scored. Stretches that overlap your own selection are excluded too, along with the most recent two weeks — otherwise the tool would keep handing back your own pattern as its own best match.

A similarity score on its own doesn’t tell you anything useful. What makes a match worth looking at is what happened after it. For every stretch that clears the similarity level you set, the tool takes the price that followed it and redraws that forward path from today’s price — so a match from 2015 and a match from 2021 both land on the same chart, comparable, starting from where price actually is right now.

Turn a match on and its forward path appears on the chart as a dashed line. Turn three or more on at once and a shaded cone appears instead — the middle path of every visible match, day by day, with a band around it holding eight in ten of them. A narrow cone means those past stretches agreed with each other on what came next; a wide one means they didn’t.

Below the match list, a summary card boils every match’s eventual outcome down to three numbers: the middle final return of all of them, the range the middle half of those outcomes fell inside, and an Edge ratio — the middle return divided by that range. A large Edge value means the matches agreed on a clear direction; a value near zero means they were scattered. That says more than a simple “X% of matches finished positive” headline, which counts a +0.01% move as a full win and hides how spread out the real outcomes were.

Four things worth knowing before you treat any result as a signal.

History rhymes. It doesn’t repeat exactly — so this tool shows you what followed last time, and leaves the conclusion to you.

The Pattern Analyzer is a context tool, not a valuation, on-chain, or trend one. It doesn’t tell you whether Bitcoin is cheap, what miners are doing, or where price sits relative to its long-run trend — for that, see the other tools and indicators in the knowledge base. What it adds is a fast answer to a narrower question: has the market looked like this before, and if so, what actually happened next — with the limits of that answer stated alongside it.

Use match outcomes the way the tool itself frames them: as cycle context — one input alongside everything else you already know, not a signal to act on by itself.

Others in tools — Product features built around the indicators above, not single-metric charts.

• Economic CalendarScheduled economic releases and central-bank decisions for the next 15 days, each scored 0–100 for how big a market moment it is.
• Risk RotationThe top 100 coins scored 0–100 on the Risk Wave model, each against its own price history, ranked and compared two at a time.
• MarketsA clean daily price chart for one asset at a time, crypto or traditional, on a log scale by default, with nothing layered on top.

Every indicator we track — the full glossary.