Puell Multiple (Adaptive)
Bitcoin (BTC)Explanation
On-ChainThe Puell Multiple looks at Bitcoin through the eyes of its miners, dividing the daily value of newly issued coins by its own 365-day average. It reads high when mining is unusually profitable and low when miners are squeezed. Fixed lines (overheated at 4, undervalued at 0.5) are quietly going out of date: each cycle's peak has come in lower (roughly 11, then 6.6, then 3.5, then 2.4), Puell has not reached 4 since early 2018, and bottoms no longer fall as deep. So this version, computed by Blockchain Decoded from the blockchain, draws adaptive bands instead. Historically Puell pushed into its overheated band when miner revenue ran hot near cycle tops, and sank into its value band during miner capitulation near cycle bottoms. These describe where the reading has sat before, not advice; past behaviour does not predict future prices.
A push toward the overheated line is hot for the current cycle even when the value looks small next to older peaks. That is the point of the adaptive lines.
Methodology note: A halving does not explain the shrinking peaks. A halving cuts new issuance in half overnight, which steps the reading down for a while because the 365-day average still holds the older, larger issuance, and it recovers over the following year. Outside that year the subsidy is the same in the numerator and the average, so what moves the ratio is price. What compresses is price: as Bitcoin grows into a larger, steadier asset, each cycle's boom and bust is smaller in percentage terms, so highs and lows drift toward the middle, and a line that fit 2013 no longer fits today. The chart therefore reads its levels from Puell's own history over a trailing 3.5 years, matched to the four-year cycle. The overheated line is that window's 90th percentile and the value line its 10th, so tagging the overheated line means hot for this era, not a decade ago. Risk Level (0 to 100, cold blue up to hot red) shows where Puell sits in its window, with the 90th percentile reading as 80 risk and the 10th as 20, marked by the 20% and 80% lines. Neutral is Puell at 1, where issuance equals its own yearly average. Puell is plotted on the left axis and Bitcoin price on the right, both on a log scale, and the days Puell sits at or beyond the two lines are shaded as zones. Computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain, using our own daily issuance and price series. The lines are drawn from the start of the chart, but in its first three and a half years they use whatever history exists, so they are less settled there. Updated daily: each day the series adds the previous day's reading.
The daily value of newly issued coins against its own yearly average, with overheated and value lines that adapt to the last three and a half years.