On-chain · Miners
Puell Multiple (Adaptive), explained
Bitcoin seen through its miners: the daily value of newly issued coins against its own yearly average. How the ratio is worked out, why a halving moves it, how the overheated and value lines adapt to the market, and what it can and cannot tell you.
- Measures
- Puell Multiple
- Lines
- 10th · 90th
- History from
- 2011
- Updated
- Daily
the daily value of new coins against its own 365-day average
percentile lines over a trailing 3.5 years
daily, Bitcoin only
each day adds the previous day's reading
What is the Puell Multiple?
Miners are paid in newly created coins. This chart takes the dollar value of the coins created each day and compares it with its own average over the previous year. When new coins are worth more than their yearly average, mining is unusually well paid. When they are worth less, miners are being squeezed.
It is a view of Bitcoin through the eyes of its miners, and it measures a ratio against its own recent past.
How the line is worked out
Each day we take the number of new coins created by the block subsidy, fees left out, and multiply it by that day’s price. We then divide it by the average of that same value over the previous 365 days. A reading of 1 means new coins are worth their yearly average. The reading is drawn on the left axis, with Bitcoin’s price on the right, and you can set either axis to linear or log.
The data is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain. The ratio needs a full year of history before it exists, so the chart starts in mid-2011.
What a halving does
About every four years the number of new coins per block is cut in half. The top of the ratio falls by half the next day, but the yearly average underneath still holds the larger, older issuance and only comes down slowly. So the reading drops sharply at every halving and recovers over the following year.
In the data, within three days of each of the four halvings the reading was between about a third and about 60 percent lower than three days before. The schematic above builds this in on purpose: the halving marker is where the ratio steps down, with price doing nothing unusual.
The overheated and value lines
Fixed levels were once published for this indicator: 4 for overheated and 0.5 for value. The reading has not reached 4 since early 2018, and the cycle peaks have come in lower each time, at about 11 in 2013, 6.6 in 2017, 3.5 in 2021 and 2.4 in 2024. A fixed line fitted to one era stops describing the next.
So this chart draws lines that move. The overheated line is the 90th percentile of the Puell Multiple over the last three and a half years, and the value line is the 10th. They are recomputed every day using only data up to that day, so a past line is never redrawn with hindsight. A reading on the overheated line is high for the current stretch of history.
The chart also shades the days on which the reading sits at or beyond a line: blue at or below the value line, red at or above the overheated line. The shading follows the moving lines, so it describes where the reading has sat against its own recent past and nothing more.
The Risk Level
Next to the chart is a Risk Level from 0 to 100. It is our own scaling and not part of the original indicator. On a log scale, the lowest reading of the last three and a half years maps to 0, the value line to 20, the overheated line to 80 and the highest reading to 100. So a reading that sits on the overheated line reads 80 on the Risk Level, and one on the value line reads 20. The 20 and 80 lines in the legend mark those two levels.
It rescales the same reading and adds nothing new, and it is not an input to either Heatmeter.
What the history shows
The reading has sat below 1 on a little under half of all days on the chart, and the deepest readings of the last three cycles were about 0.31 in January 2015, 0.30 in December 2018 and 0.35 in June 2022. Each of those fell below the old fixed value level of 0.5.
The peaks are the clearer pattern: each of the last four came in lower than the one before. Bitcoin has grown into a larger market, and a larger market tends to swing less far from its own yearly average.
What the chart does not tell you
A miner-revenue reading feels like a verdict, which is when it is easiest to over-read. Five things to keep in view.
A halving moves it for reasons that are not about miners being squeezed
A halving cuts the number of new coins in half overnight, but the 365-day average still holds the larger, older issuance. So the reading falls sharply at every halving and climbs back over the following year, whatever price does. A low reading in the months after a halving is partly that arithmetic, not only a sign of squeezed miners.
The lines describe the last three and a half years
The overheated and value lines are recomputed every day from the last 3.5 years of the chart's own readings. A reading on the overheated line is high for this stretch of history, which can be a smaller number than a high reading from an earlier cycle. In the first three and a half years of the chart the lines use whatever history exists, so they are less settled there.
It counts new coins only, not fees
The numerator is the block subsidy valued at that day's price. Transaction fees are not included, so it describes the value of newly issued coins, not everything miners earn.
The first year is left out
The ratio needs a full 365-day average before it exists, so the chart starts in mid-2011. Bitcoin's earliest trading was also thin, which makes the early readings jumpy.
It describes miner revenue and says nothing about timing
The reading can sit near either line for a long time before anything changes, and a low reading is not the same as a bottom, nor a high one the same as a top. It shows how the value of new coins compares with its own recent past, nothing more.
The ratio shows how new coins are valued against their own year. It cannot show what comes next.
Where it fits
This is an on-chain miner chart. The other Puell Multiple chart on the site draws fixed levels and has its own guide, and this one is separate: it does not feed either Heatmeter. It is most useful next to the other mining and cost-basis charts, to see how the economics of new coins sit against the recent past.
Common questions
What is the Puell Multiple?
The daily value of newly issued bitcoin, in dollars, divided by its own average over the previous 365 days. A reading of 1 means new coins are worth what they have been worth on average over the last year. Above 1 they are worth more, and below 1 they are worth less.
What counts as newly issued coins?
The block subsidy: the new coins created by each mined block. Bitcoin creates new coins only this way, and the subsidy halves roughly every four years. Transaction fees are not included.
Why does the reading drop at a halving?
The day after a halving, the number of new coins per day is half what it was, so the top of the ratio falls by half. The 365-day average underneath still contains the larger, older issuance, so it falls only slowly. The ratio steps down at once and recovers gradually over the following year.
What are the overheated and value lines?
The overheated line is the 90th percentile of the Puell Multiple over the last 3.5 years, and the value line is the 10th percentile. They are recomputed every day using only data up to that day, so they move with the market. Fixed levels used to be published, 4 for overheated and 0.5 for value, but the reading has not reached 4 since early 2018.
What is the Risk Level next to the chart?
It is our own scaling of the reading onto 0 to 100. The lowest reading of the last 3.5 years maps to 0, the value line to 20, the overheated line to 80 and the highest reading to 100, on a log scale in between. A reading on the overheated line therefore reads 80, and one on the value line reads 20. It is not an input to either Heatmeter.
How is this different from the other Puell Multiple chart?
The other Puell Multiple chart draws fixed levels and has its own guide. This one draws the adaptive lines and our own risk scaling, and is computed by Blockchain Decoded from the blockchain. They are separate charts.
How often does it update?
Once a day. Each day the series adds the previous day's reading, and the days already on the chart do not change.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. It describes how the value of newly issued coins compares with its own recent past. Readings near the lines have shown up around past cycle turns, but those are historical observations and not a guide to what happens next.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- NUPL (Adaptive)The share of Bitcoin’s market value that is an unrealized gain, with overheated and value lines that adapt to the last three and a half years.
- Percent Supply in ProfitWhat share of all Bitcoin was last moved at a price below today’s, and what share above it, against the 50 percent crossover.
- Hash RibbonBitcoin’s mining power as a 30-day and a 60-day average, and the stretches where the short one sits under the long one.
- 2-Year Cost BasisThe average price paid by coins that moved in the last two years, against Bitcoin’s price, and the stretches where price sits under it.
- LTH AccumulatingHow many bitcoin have sat unspent for more than 155 days, and the stretches where that group has been growing over the last 30 days.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the chart
Everything above is the method. On the chart you can read the Puell Multiple against the overheated and value lines, switch on the Risk Level and the 20 and 80 lines, and set either axis to a linear or log scale.