On-chain · Cost basis
2-Year Cost Basis, explained
The average price paid by every coin that moved in the last two years, against Bitcoin's price. How the cost basis is worked out, what it means when price sits under it, how often and for how long that has happened, and what it can and cannot tell you.
- Measures
- Cost basis
- Window
- 730 days
- History from
- 2013
- Updated
- Daily
the average price of coins that moved in the last two years
weighted by how many coins each price covers
daily, Bitcoin only
each day adds the previous day's reading
What is the 2-year cost basis?
Every coin was last moved at some price. This chart takes the coins that last moved in the past two years and works out the average of those prices, weighted by how many coins sit at each one. That average is the 2-year cost basis, a measure of what the recent part of the supply cost.
It is drawn against Bitcoin’s price, so you can see whether the market is above or below what those coins last changed hands for.
How the line is worked out
Each coin is tagged with the price on the day it last moved on the blockchain. Every day we keep the coins that last moved within the previous 730 days and average their tags, counting each price by the number of coins that carry it. Because older coins drop out of the window as newer ones enter, the line follows the market with a lag.
The data is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain. The chart starts in 2013, because the cost basis needs two years of priced coins behind it before it exists.
What it means when price is under the line
When price is above the cost basis, the average coin that moved in the last two years is worth more than when it moved. When price is below, it is worth less. The chart shades those stretches, and the reading above the chart shows how far price sits above or below the line, as a percentage.
It describes where price sits against recent cost. It does not describe how any one holder feels, and it marks no threshold that triggers anything.
What the history shows
Since 2013, price has been under the 2-year cost basis on a bit over one day in three. There have been 42 separate stretches, and 10 lasted a month or more. The longest ran 459 days, from September 2014 to December 2015. The others of note were 283 days in 2018 and 2019, and 358 days in 2022 and 2023.
At the four price lows of 2015, 2018, March 2020 and 2022, price sat 59, 52, 35 and 53 percent under the line. It has also dipped under it at other times, in 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2025, and the price low of early 2024 stayed 25 percent above it. So price has been under the line at past lows, and at other times too.
What the chart does not tell you
A cost line feels like a verdict, which is when it is easiest to over-read. Five things to keep in view.
Price under the line is common, not rare
Since 2013, Bitcoin's price has been under the 2-year cost basis on a bit over one day in three. There have been 42 separate stretches, and 10 lasted a month or more. It has also happened in the middle of cycles and not only near lows, so being under the line says little on its own.
It follows where coins last moved, not who bought them
Each coin is tagged with the price on the day it last moved. A coin that moves between two wallets of the same holder gets a new tag, and a coin that is lost never moves at all. Adjusting for that is called entity adjustment, and this chart does not apply it.
It covers recent movers only
Only coins that last moved in the past 730 days are in the average. Coins that have sat still for longer than that are left out, so the line describes the recent part of the supply and says nothing about long-term holders.
Large amounts count for more
The average is weighted by how many coins sit at each price. A large movement of coins on one day pulls the cost basis toward that day's price more than many small ones do.
A stretch under the line can last a long time
The longest ran 459 days, from September 2014 to December 2015. It is a description of where price sits against recent cost, and it says nothing about when that changes.
The line shows what recent coins cost. It cannot show what price does next.
Where it fits
This is an on-chain cost-basis chart with no risk score of its own. It is one of the four conditions behind the On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal, which counts how many are present at once. It is not an input to either Heatmeter. It is most useful next to MVRV and the other cost-basis charts, which are built from the same coin-by-coin tags.
Common questions
What is the 2-year cost basis?
The average price at which the coins that moved in the last two years last changed hands, weighted by how many coins each price covers. It reads as the average price paid by the recent part of the supply.
How is it worked out?
Every coin is tagged with the price on the day it last moved. Each day we keep the coins that last moved within the previous 730 days and take the average of their tags, weighted by the number of coins. It is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain.
What does it mean when price is under the line?
The average coin that moved in the last two years is now worth less than the price it moved at. The chart shades those stretches. The reading above the chart shows how far price sits above or below the cost basis, as a percentage.
How often has price been under it?
On a bit over one day in three since 2013, in 42 separate stretches. The longest lasted 459 days, and the price lows of 2015, 2018 and 2022 all fell well under it.
Why does the chart start in 2013?
The cost basis needs two years of priced coins behind it before it exists, so the first reading comes two years after Bitcoin first had a market price.
How often does it update?
Once a day. Each day the series adds the previous day's reading, and the days already on the chart do not change.
Does this chart have a risk score?
No. It draws the price, the cost basis and the shaded stretches. It is one of the four conditions behind the On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal, which counts how many are present.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. It describes where price sits against what recent coins cost. Price has been under the line near past lows, but also at other times, so it is a historical observation and not a guide to what happens next.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- LTH AccumulatingHow many bitcoin have sat unspent for more than 155 days, and the stretches where that group has been growing over the last 30 days.
- LTH Realized LossThe daily dollar value of losses taken when long-held coins are spent below the price they last moved at, shown as a 30-day average.
- LTH Supply in LossHow many long-held bitcoin sit at a loss, against the cohort's average cost and Bitcoin's price.
- On-Chain Bottom Zone SignalA count, from zero to four, of how many of four on-chain conditions hold at once, shown weekly.
- Stock-to-FlowThe scarcity model that values Bitcoin from its issuance rate, shown with its deviation from actual price.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the chart
Everything above is the method. On the chart you can see Bitcoin’s price against the 2-year cost basis, the shaded stretches where price sits under it, and how far above or below it price is today.