On-chain · Holders
LTH Realized Loss, explained
The daily dollar value of losses taken when bitcoin that had sat unspent for more than 155 days is finally spent below the price it last moved at. How a loss is counted, why the chart shows a 30-day average, what the history shows at past lows, and what a record of losses can and cannot tell you.
- Measures
- USD per day
- Plotted as
- 30 days
- History from
- 2011
- Updated
- Daily
losses taken on coins unspent for more than 155 days
a 30-day average of the daily figure
daily, Bitcoin only
each day adds the previous day's reading
What does it show?
Long-term holders are the coins that have sat still for a long time. Most of the time they are spent at a profit. This chart adds up the times they are not: the money locked in as a loss, day by day, on coins that had sat unspent for more than 155 days.
When the line is high, long-term holders have been spending coins below the price those coins last moved at. It is a record of losses taken, not a forecast.
How a loss is counted
Every coin is tagged with Bitcoin’s price on the day it last moved. When a coin that has been unspent for more than 155 days is spent, we compare today’s price with that tagged price. If today’s price is lower, the difference times the size of the coin is a realized loss. A coin spent at a higher price counts as nothing here.
The daily figure is the sum across every such coin that was spent that day. It uses a hard cutoff, and we apply no entity adjustment. The data is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain, and the chart starts in October 2011.
Why the line is a 30-day average
Single days are extreme. The largest day in the history, 30 March 2023, was about $6.2 billion. Plotted raw, one day like that would flatten everything around it. The chart plots the average of the last 30 days, which shows the run of losses over a month.
What the history shows
The 30-day average peaked at about $135 million a day on 14 December 2018, one day before the price low, and at about $540 million a day on 6 December 2022, 15 days after the price low on 21 November. In 2020 it peaked at about $47 million a day on 7 April, 26 days after the March low. In 2015 it never passed about $4 million a day, because far fewer coins were old enough to count.
Since the average begins in late 2011 it has been above $100 million a day on about one day in nine. The snapshot behind this guide ends on 15 July 2026 with the average near $295 million a day, about 55 percent of the 2022 peak.
What the chart does not tell you
A record of losses feels like a verdict on the market, which is when it is easiest to over-read. Five things to keep in view.
It counts losses already taken, not losses to come
A loss is counted on the day a long-held coin is spent. A coin that is still unspent adds nothing, however far under its old price Bitcoin trades. The chart is a record of what holders have already done.
The level reads high, so look at the shape
The cutoff is a hard 155 days with no entity adjustment, so movements by a single entity are not merged and our totals sit above entity-adjusted versions of the same measure. The level is offset, and the timing of the rises is what the chart is for.
One day can dwarf a month
The largest single day in the history, 30 March 2023, was about $6.2 billion. That is why the line is a 30-day average. A reading on any one day, or one very large movement, can still lift the average for a month.
It has not always lined up with the lowest price
The 2018 peak came the day before the price low and the 2022 peak 15 days after it. The 2020 peak was on 7 April, 26 days after the low, and the 2015 reading was only about $4 million a day because far fewer coins were old enough to count. The size of the readings also differs between cycles, so a number on its own says little.
It describes losses and says nothing about timing
Losses can keep being taken for months, and a high reading can fall away without the price turning. It shows how much loss long-term holders have locked in, nothing more.
The chart shows the losses that have been taken. It cannot show which are left, or what comes next.
Where it fits
This is an on-chain holder chart with no risk score of its own. It is not an input to either Heatmeter or to the On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal. It sits beside LTH Supply in Loss, which shows how much long-held supply is at a loss today, whereas this chart shows the loss taken when coins are actually spent.
Common questions
What is a long-term holder coin?
Any coin that has sat unspent for more than 155 days. Each coin is timed from the day it last moved on the blockchain. When it moves again it leaves the group and its clock restarts.
What is a realized loss?
The loss locked in when a coin is spent. It is the price the coin was worth on the day it last moved, minus the price on the day it is spent, counted only when the second price is lower. A coin spent at a higher price counts as nothing here.
Why is the line a 30-day average?
Single days are extreme. The largest day in the history, 30 March 2023, was about $6.2 billion. A 30-day average shows the run of losses over a month and not one day.
What did it show at past lows?
The 30-day average peaked at about $135 million a day on 14 December 2018, one day before the price low, and at about $540 million a day on 6 December 2022, 15 days after the price low. In 2020 it peaked at about $47 million a day on 7 April, 26 days after the low. In 2015 it never passed about $4 million a day.
How often is the average high?
Above $100 million a day on about one day in nine since the average begins in late 2011. The snapshot behind this guide ends on 15 July 2026 with the average near $295 million a day, about 55 percent of the 2022 peak.
Why does our level differ from other versions?
We use a hard 155-day cutoff and do not merge coin movements by a single entity. Versions that adjust show lower totals. The shape and timing are what this chart is for.
How often does it update?
Once a day. Each day the series adds the previous day's reading, and the days already on the chart do not change.
Does this chart have a risk score?
No. It draws the 30-day average of realized loss and Bitcoin's price alongside. It is not an input to either Heatmeter or to the On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. It records losses long-term holders have already taken. The size of the readings has differed from cycle to cycle and the peaks have not always fallen on the lowest day, so it is a historical observation and not a guide to what happens next.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- LTH Supply in LossHow many long-held bitcoin sit at a loss, against the cohort's average cost and Bitcoin's price.
- On-Chain Bottom Zone SignalA count, from zero to four, of how many of four on-chain conditions hold at once, shown weekly.
- Stock-to-FlowThe scarcity model that values Bitcoin from its issuance rate, shown with its deviation from actual price.
- Exchange FlowCoins moving on and off major exchanges, as a daily net flow with a 7-day average, ranked against its own history.
- Volume MomentumTrading volume against its own yearly baseline — speculative heat rather than price.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the chart
Everything above is the method. On the chart you can see the 30-day average of realized loss against Bitcoin’s price, with the 2018 and 2022 readings to compare against.