On-chain · Holders
LTH Supply in Loss, explained
How many bitcoin that have sat unspent for more than 155 days are worth less than the price they last moved at, and how that sits against the group's average cost. What counts as a loss, why it can be large even when price is above the average, what the history shows, and what a count of supply in loss can and cannot tell you.
- Measures
- BTC in loss
- Beside it
- 2 prices
- History from
- 2011
- Updated
- Daily
long-held coins worth less than the price they last moved at
the group's average cost (LTH Realized Price) and Bitcoin
daily, Bitcoin only
each day adds the previous day's reading
What does it show?
Some coins have sat unspent for a long time. This chart counts the ones that are now worth less than the price they were at when they last moved, and calls that supply in loss. It draws that amount in bitcoin, with Bitcoin’s price and the group’s average cost beside it.
It is an unrealized loss. Nothing is lost until a coin is spent, which is what the LTH Realized Loss chart counts.
How it is counted
Every coin is tagged with Bitcoin’s price on the day it last moved. Each day we take all the coins that have been unspent for more than 155 days, and add up those whose tagged price is above today’s price. That total is the supply in loss.
The LTH Realized Price is the average of those tagged prices across the whole group, weighted by the size of each coin. It uses a hard cutoff, and we apply no entity adjustment. The data is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain, and the chart starts in November 2011. Coins mined before 2010 predate a reliable price and are counted at a near-zero cost.
Why it can be large when price is above the average cost
The average cost is one number for the whole group. Each coin is compared with its own price, so a group whose average cost is below the current price can still hold plenty of coins bought higher. On 15 July 2026 Bitcoin was about $64,700 and the LTH Realized Price about $49,900, so price was about 30 percent above it. About 41 percent of the group was still in loss.
What the history shows
As a share of the group, supply in loss was about 45 percent at the December 2018 low and about 44 percent at the November 2022 low. The highest share in the history was about 53 percent on 24 August 2015. In March 2020 it was about 42.5 percent, with price just above the average cost.
Price has been under the LTH Realized Price on about 13 percent of days, 694 in all. The longer stretches include January to October 2015, 22 November 2018 to 1 April 2019 (131 days), and September 2022 to January 2023. More than a tenth of the group has been in loss on about three days in five. The largest amount in bitcoin, about 7.5 million on 30 June 2026, is a larger group and not a larger share.
What the chart does not tell you
A count of coins under water feels like a verdict on the market, which is when it is easiest to over-read. Five things to keep in view.
Each coin is judged against its own price
A coin is in loss when today's price is below the price on the day it last moved. The group's average cost sits between many different prices, so plenty of coins can be at a loss while price is above the average. In March 2020 about 42.5 percent of the group was in loss with price above the line.
The amount grows because the group grows
The group of long-held coins was about 3.8 million coins in 2011 and about 16.8 million in mid-2026. The largest amount in the history, about 7.5 million coins on 30 June 2026, is a larger group and not a larger share: that day was about 45 percent. The share is the like-for-like comparison.
The level reads high, so look at the shape
The cutoff is a hard 155 days with no entity adjustment, so the group is slightly larger than entity-adjusted versions of the same measure. The level is offset, and the rise and fall is what the chart is for.
The share has been similar at very different moments
It was about 45 percent at the December 2018 low and about 44 percent at the November 2022 low. It was also about 41 percent on 15 July 2026, with price about 30 percent above the average cost. A level on its own does not say which kind of moment it is.
It describes holdings and says nothing about timing
Supply can sit at a loss for months and nothing need be sold. A coin only counts as a realized loss when it is spent. This chart shows what is held underwater, nothing more.
The chart shows how much is held at a loss. It cannot show who will sell, or when.
Where it fits
This is an on-chain holder chart with no risk score of its own. It is not an input to either Heatmeter or to the On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal. It sits beside LTH Realized Loss, which counts the losses taken when long-held coins are spent, and LTH Accumulating, which shows whether the group is growing.
Common questions
What is a long-term holder coin?
Any coin that has sat unspent for more than 155 days. Each coin is timed from the day it last moved on the blockchain. When it moves again it leaves the group and its clock restarts.
What does supply in loss mean?
The number of long-held bitcoin whose price on the day they last moved is above today's price. It is an unrealized loss: nothing is lost until the coin is spent.
What is the LTH Realized Price?
The average price on the day each long-held coin last moved, weighted by the size of the coins. It is the group's average cost. On 15 July 2026 it was about $49,900, and Bitcoin was about $64,700.
If price is above the LTH Realized Price, is supply in loss small?
Not necessarily. On 15 July 2026 price was about 30 percent above the LTH Realized Price and about 41 percent of long-held supply was still in loss. In March 2020 it was about 42.5 percent with price above the line. Each coin is compared with its own price.
What did it show at past lows?
The share of the group in loss was about 45 percent at the December 2018 low and about 44 percent at the November 2022 low. The highest share in the history was about 53 percent on 24 August 2015.
How often has price been under the LTH Realized Price?
On about 13 percent of days, 694 in all. The longer stretches include January to October 2015, 22 November 2018 to 1 April 2019 (131 days), and September 2022 to January 2023.
Why does our level differ from other versions?
We use a hard 155-day cutoff and do not merge coin movements by a single entity. The group is slightly larger than in entity-adjusted versions. The shape and timing are what this chart is for.
How often does it update?
Once a day. Each day the series adds the previous day's reading, and the days already on the chart do not change.
Does this chart have a risk score?
No. It draws supply in loss, the LTH Realized Price and Bitcoin's price. It is not an input to either Heatmeter or to the On-Chain Bottom Zone Signal.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. It describes how much of the long-held supply is worth less than it was when it last moved. The share has been similar at past lows and in 2026, so it is a historical observation and not a guide to what happens next.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- On-Chain Bottom Zone SignalA count, from zero to four, of how many of four on-chain conditions hold at once, shown weekly.
- Stock-to-FlowThe scarcity model that values Bitcoin from its issuance rate, shown with its deviation from actual price.
- Exchange FlowCoins moving on and off major exchanges, as a daily net flow with a 7-day average, ranked against its own history.
- Volume MomentumTrading volume against its own yearly baseline — speculative heat rather than price.
- AHR999Compares today’s price with what buyers have typically paid over the long run — built for spotting cheap stretches.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the chart
Everything above is the method. On the chart you can see the supply in loss, the group’s average cost and Bitcoin’s price together.