On-chain · Profit and loss
Percent Supply in Profit, explained
What share of all Bitcoin was last moved at a price below today's, and what share above it. How the share is worked out, what the 50 percent crossover marks, what the history shows, and what a count of coins can and cannot tell you.
- Measures
- Supply in profit
- Crossover
- 50%
- History from
- 2011
- Updated
- Daily
the share of coins last moved below today's price
below it, more coins are underwater than in profit
daily, Bitcoin only
each day adds the previous day's reading
What does it show?
Every Bitcoin was last moved at some price. If today’s price is higher than that, the coin sits on an unrealized gain. If it is lower, the coin sits on an unrealized loss. This chart counts what share of all coins is in each position.
When the market is high, almost every coin is in profit. When it falls far enough, a large share of coins goes underwater.
How the share is worked out
We tag every coin, back to the first block in 2009, with the price on the day it last moved. Each day we compare those tags with that day’s price. The coins tagged at or below the price are in profit, and the coins tagged above it are in loss. The two shares always add up to 100.
The chart draws both, with Bitcoin’s price beside them. The data is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain, and the chart starts in January 2011.
The 50 percent crossover
A line at 50 percent marks where profit and loss are equal. Below it, more of the supply is underwater than in profit. That has happened on about one day in fifteen since 2011, in 2011, 2014 to 2015, 2018 to 2020 and 2022, and again in 2026. The chart shades those stretches in blue.
It is a level on a count of coins, and it marks no threshold that triggers anything.
What the history shows
At each past cycle high, close to all of the supply was in profit: the line reached 100 percent in 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2024. At the lows it fell the other way. The share dipped to about 38 percent in August 2015, 40 percent in February 2019, 46 percent in March 2020 and 46 percent in November 2022, and it has never gone below about 38 percent.
All four of those lows were below the 50 percent line, which is why the crossover is a useful reference. It is a description of where the share has been, and it does not say where it goes next.
The Risk Level
Next to the chart is a Risk Level from 0 to 100. It is our own ranking and not part of the original measure. It places today’s share of coins in profit against every day on the chart, so a share that has rarely been higher reads close to 100 and one that has rarely been lower reads close to 0. The 20 and 80 lines in the legend mark the two ends.
It rescales the same reading and adds nothing new, and it is not an input to either Heatmeter.
What the chart does not tell you
A count of coins in profit feels like a verdict, which is when it is easiest to over-read. Five things to keep in view.
Coins from before Bitcoin had a price are counted as in profit
About 1.5 million of today's coins last moved before July 2010, when no exchange price existed, so they have no meaningful cost basis. By convention they count as in profit. That is a choice, and the reading depends on it, so it is stated here and not left unsaid.
It counts coins, not dollars
A small coin and a large coin each count by how many coins there are, not by what they cost. So this reading differs from NUPL, which weighs gains and losses by value. The two describe the same market in different units and need not move together.
It counts every coin that moved
A coin is tagged with the price on the day it last moved. A coin that moves between two wallets of the same holder gets a new cost basis, and a coin that is lost never moves at all. Adjusting for that is called entity adjustment, and this chart does not apply it.
The Risk Level is a ranking, and rankings can shift
The Risk Level places today's share against every day on the chart. Because it ranks against the whole history, a past day's ranking can move slightly as new days are added, which the profit and loss lines themselves never do.
It describes how many coins are in profit and says nothing about timing
The share can sit near either end for a long time before anything changes, and a low share is not the same as a bottom, nor a share near 100 the same as a top. It says how much of the supply is in gain or loss at today's price, nothing more.
The chart shows how many coins are in profit. It cannot show when that changes.
Where it fits
This is an on-chain profit and loss chart. It sits beside NUPL, which measures the same idea in dollars instead of coins, and beside the other cost-basis charts. It is not an input to either Heatmeter. It is most useful as context next to those, to see how widely the gains and losses are spread across the supply.
Common questions
What does Percent Supply in Profit show?
The share of all Bitcoin that was last moved at a price below today's price. Those coins are sitting on an unrealized gain. The rest were last moved at a higher price and sit on an unrealized loss.
How does a coin get its price?
Each coin is tagged with the price on the day it last moved on the blockchain. If today's price is above that tag the coin is in profit, and if it is below the coin is in loss. A coin priced exactly at today's price counts as in profit.
Why are there two lines if they add up to 100?
Supply in profit and supply in loss always add up to 100 percent, so the loss line is a mirror of the profit line. The chart shows both because the crossings read more clearly together.
What is the 50 percent crossover?
The level where profit and loss are equal. Below it, more of the supply is underwater than in profit. On our data that has happened on about 7 percent of days since 2011, and the chart shades those days in blue.
What happens to coins from before Bitcoin had a price?
About 1.5 million of today's coins last moved before July 2010, when no exchange price existed. They count as in profit, the standard convention, and the reading depends on that choice.
What is the Risk Level next to the chart?
It is our own ranking of today's share against every day on the chart, from 0 to 100, where a high share of coins in profit reads as a high number. The 20 and 80 lines mark the two ends. It is not an input to either Heatmeter.
How often does it update?
Once a day. Each day the series adds the previous day's reading, and the profit and loss lines for the days already on the chart do not change.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. It describes how much of the supply is in gain or loss at today's price. Readings at the extremes have shown up around past cycle turns, but those are historical observations and not a guide to what happens next.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- Hash RibbonBitcoin’s mining power as a 30-day and a 60-day average, and the stretches where the short one sits under the long one.
- 2-Year Cost BasisThe average price paid by coins that moved in the last two years, against Bitcoin’s price, and the stretches where price sits under it.
- LTH AccumulatingHow many bitcoin have sat unspent for more than 155 days, and the stretches where that group has been growing over the last 30 days.
- LTH Realized LossThe daily dollar value of losses taken when long-held coins are spent below the price they last moved at, shown as a 30-day average.
- LTH Supply in LossHow many long-held bitcoin sit at a loss, against the cohort's average cost and Bitcoin's price.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the chart
Everything above is the method. On the chart you can read the share of supply in profit and in loss against the 50 percent line, switch on the Risk Level and its 20 and 80 lines, and see Bitcoin’s price alongside.