Macro · Liquidity
Bitcoin vs Global M2, explained
Bitcoin against global money-supply growth — the clearest expression of the debasement thesis. How the risk score is calculated, where the data comes from, and what it can and cannot tell you.
- Source
- CoinGlass
- Risk ceiling
- 12% YoY
- Floor
- ≤ 0%
- Price tail
- CoinGecko
their published global M2 growth index
M2 growth at or above this reads 100
flat or shrinking M2 reads 0 risk
extends BTC price past M2’s publish delay
What is Bitcoin vs Global M2?
A chart that plots Bitcoin's price against the year-over-year growth rate of global M2 money supply — the total of cash, checking deposits and easily-convertible near-money circulating across the world's major economies.
It exists to make one idea checkable: the debasement thesis. Bitcoin has a fixed, disinflationary supply. Fiat money supply doesn't. When M2 grows faster than the real economy, each unit of currency is worth relatively less, and capital has historically rotated toward scarce assets to preserve purchasing power — Bitcoin among them.
Where does the data come from?
Bitcoin price and M2 growth both come from CoinGlass's global M2 growth index, which pairs the Bitcoin price with a global M2 year-over-year growth figure and the underlying M2 supply figure. CoinGlass combines that "global M2" number from multiple central banks, but doesn't publish the exact basket, the currency-conversion method, or the weighting behind it. This chart reports the figure exactly as CoinGlass publishes it.
Because M2 data publishes with a delay, the chart's price line doesn't stop where the M2 line does. Past CoinGlass's most recent M2 figure, the price line carries on with the live CoinGecko Bitcoin price, so it reaches today even though there is no M2 growth or risk reading for that final stretch.
How is the risk score actually calculated?
It's a straight ratio, not a fitted curve or a machine-learned model. If M2 growth is at or below zero, risk is 0. Above zero, risk scales linearly up to 12% YoY growth, where it reaches 100 — and stops. The scale ends there: 13% growth and 22% growth both read as 100.
That simplicity is the point, and it has a cost. A ceiling means the score can tell you that money supply is growing as fast as this indicator measures, but not how much further it has run once past 12%.
Has this relationship actually held up?
Directionally, yes — expanding global money supply and strength in riskier assets have moved together often enough that the pattern is widely tracked across macro and crypto research. But it is an observed relationship, not a proven mechanism that arrives on a fixed schedule. Bitcoin has moved with, ahead of, and against M2 growth at different points in its history.
CoinGlass does not publish the full recipe
CoinGlass publishes a single combined "global M2" growth figure, but not the list of central banks in it, the currency-conversion method, or the weighting behind it. This chart reports the number exactly as CoinGlass publishes it.
The score stops rising at 12% growth
Risk is a straight line from 0% growth (0 risk) to 12% growth (100 risk), and then it flattens. 13% growth and 22% growth both read as 100 — the score cannot tell you how much hotter than "maximum" conditions actually are.
M2 publishes on a delay, price doesn’t
Money-supply data lags by weeks. When CoinGecko’s live BTC price runs ahead of the last CoinGlass M2 publish, the tail of the price line has no matching M2 or risk reading behind it — the most recent stretch of price is context-free.
A pattern is not a mechanism
The debasement thesis is a real, widely-cited pattern, not a proven causal law. Bitcoin has moved with, ahead of, and against M2 growth at different points in its history. Treat the relationship as directional evidence, not a timing model.
The score doesn't predict Bitcoin. It measures how fast the water is rising underneath it.
How do you actually read this chart?
Watch the direction of M2 growth, not just its level. A rising growth rate — even from a low base — signals liquidity conditions loosening. A falling rate, even from a high base, signals tightening, regardless of where the risk score currently sits.
Treat a maxed-out score as a ceiling, not a top signal. Once M2 growth clears 12% YoY, the risk score stops moving. That's the indicator telling you it has run out of scale — not telling you the top is in.
Mind the delay. The most recent stretch of the price line can be running with no fresh M2 reading behind it at all. The risk score you see reflects the last confirmed M2 publish, which may already be weeks old.
Where it fits
Bitcoin vs Global M2 is a macro liquidity indicator: it measures the monetary backdrop Bitcoin is trading inside of, not anything specific to Bitcoin's own on-chain activity, valuation, or cycle position. It says nothing about miner economics, holder behaviour, or where Bitcoin sits relative to its own historical range.
It also isn't one of the 14 weighted inputs behind the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heatmeter score — it stands on its own. It's best read as context for the other indicators, not a replacement for them: a hot M2 growth reading alongside a stretched on-chain or cycle-timing signal carries more weight than either alone.
Common questions
What is Bitcoin vs Global M2?
A macro chart that plots Bitcoin’s price against the year-over-year growth rate of global M2 money supply, sourced from CoinGlass’s global M2 growth index. It is built around the debasement thesis: the idea that a fixed-supply asset like Bitcoin benefits when the supply of fiat money is expanding faster than the goods and assets it competes with.
How is the risk score calculated?
It is a straight line drawn from M2 growth to the score. At or below 0% year-over-year growth, the risk score is 0. From there it rises evenly up to 12% growth, where it reaches 100 and stops — any growth rate above 12% still reads as 100, because the scale has nothing above that point.
Why does the chart show Bitcoin price without M2 data at the very end?
Global M2 figures publish with a delay, but Bitcoin’s price doesn’t wait for them. The chart’s history comes from CoinGlass with both lines present; past CoinGlass’s last M2 figure, the price line continues on live CoinGecko prices with no matching M2 growth or risk score behind it, so the line keeps moving while the risk reading stays pinned to the last confirmed M2 figure.
What is the debasement thesis?
The argument that Bitcoin’s price is driven, over time, as much by how fast fiat currency supply is expanding as by anything specific to Bitcoin itself. When central banks expand M2 faster than the real economy grows, each unit of currency is worth relatively less, and capital has historically rotated into scarce assets — Bitcoin among them — to preserve purchasing power.
Is Bitcoin vs Global M2 part of the Bitcoin or Ethereum Heatmeter?
No. Both Heatmeter composites weight 14 specific indicators — things like Pi Cycle Top, Risk Wave, MVRV and Puell Multiple — and Bitcoin vs Global M2 is not one of them on either asset. It exists on this site as its own standalone macro chart with its own risk score, not folded into either composite.
Does a high M2 growth reading mean Bitcoin will go up?
Not directly, and not on any fixed schedule. High M2 growth has historically coincided with strength across riskier assets, Bitcoin included, but the relationship is a loose observed pattern rather than a mechanical trigger — and once growth passes 12% YoY, the risk score simply stays at its ceiling, so it stops telling you anything about how much further conditions have run.
Related guides
Others in macro — Interest rates and the supply of money — the backdrop crypto ultimately trades against.
- Fed Balance SheetTotal Federal Reserve assets: expansion and contraction of the system’s base liquidity.
- Federal Funds RateThe policy rate that sets the price of money for everything else.
- 10-Year Treasury YieldThe long end of the curve — the market’s own verdict on growth and inflation.
- Treasury General AccountThe US Treasury’s cash balance, which drains or adds liquidity as it fills and empties.
- Treasury Debt RolloverHow much government debt matures each year and has to be refinanced.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
See the live reading, not the schematic
Everything above is the mechanism. On the live chart you get the real two-scale view — Bitcoin price on a log scale, where each step up the axis is a multiple rather than a fixed dollar amount, with global M2 growth and supply laid over it, updated as CoinGlass publishes and carried to today with the live price, free with an account.