Analytics · Bitcoin
The Gaussian Channel Trend Zones, explained
Weekly Bitcoin through a very smooth Gaussian filter: the zones where the filter falls, what happened around them in earlier cycles, and a 0–100 risk level for how far price is stretched above the filter.
- Filter
- 144
- Bands
- ±1.414×
- Zones
- Table
- Risk level
- 0–100
weekly bars, 4 poles
the filtered weekly range
every completed zone since 2009
price stretch vs the filter
What the chart measures
Weekly Bitcoin, smoothed by a 4-pole Gaussian filter with a period of 144 weeks. Four exponential smoothing stages are stacked, so noise drops out and only the slow cycle remains. Two bands sit at ±1.414 times the same filter applied to the weekly price range. They show volatility and play no part in the zones.
The whole model rests on one comparison: is the filter lower than it was last week? If it is, the week is part of a falling-filter zone and the chart shades it green. If not, it is not.
Why the shading is green
A filter this slow only turns down in the long, drawn-out part of a Bitcoin cycle, the stretches in which price spent its time near its lows. The shading is green because those stretches have historically been the quiet end of a cycle, the opposite of the usual red-means-danger reading. It describes earlier cycles; it says nothing about what comes next.
The filter line itself keeps its familiar colouring, red while falling and green while rising, so the chart stays recognisable next to the original indicator.
How the zone table is built
A zone is every run of weeks in which the filter is falling, with at least 4 weeks for it to be recorded. The table then shows each completed zone’s dates, number of weeks and days, the average weekly close inside it with an equal amount each week, the highest weekly high before the next zone began and its date, the change from the average to that high, the days it took, and the deepest dip against the running average while the zone was open.
The zone in progress is not a row. The status pill above the chart says whether the filter is falling and, if so, how many days it has been.
How the risk level is calculated
Price minus the filter, divided by the filtered weekly range, is how far price is stretched from its trend. That reading is ranked as a percentile against every earlier week, so a week is only ever compared with its past. 0 means price has never been more compressed against the filter, 100 that it has never been more stretched above it. The first 52 weeks are a warm-up with no reading.
Readings sat above 80 around the 2013 and 2017 cycle tops and below 5 near cycle bottoms. The November 2021 double top read about 55, because price never stretched far above such a slow filter.
A handful of zones is a story, not a statistic
Bitcoin’s weekly history holds only a few completed zones. Every length, average and range in the table is built from them, so each new zone moves the picture noticeably. Read the numbers as a description of what happened.
The change to the high is a hindsight maximum
Each zone records the highest weekly high reached before the next zone began, measured from the average weekly close inside the zone. It is the best case of that stretch, not a return anyone realised, and it is only knowable afterwards.
Zones can be uncomfortable from the inside
Inside the completed zones the price spent long stretches below its running average, with dips of more than a third at the worst point. A falling filter says nothing about how deep or how long a dip runs.
The risk level is an add-on
The filter, the bands and the zones follow the original model exactly. The 0–100 risk level was added on top: it ranks price stretch against the past only, with no lookahead. It read mid-range (about 55) at the November 2021 double top, because price never stretched far above such a slow filter. That is a known property of the measure, accepted rather than tuned away.
A few completed zones describe what happened. They do not say what has to happen next.
How do you read the chart?
The white line is weekly close, on the right-hand axis with a log or linear toggle; its last point follows the live price. The coloured line is the filter and the two grey lines are its bands. Green shading marks the weeks the filter was falling.
The strip above the chart shows the live price, the risk level with its label, whether the filter is falling or rising, and the display options. The zone table sits below the chart.
Where are its limits?
The model only looks at weekly closes, so it reads a turn in direction long after it has happened. It uses a single asset and a single period, with no tuning to other markets. And the average price assumes an equal amount every week, which is a property of the model rather than anyone’s actual history.
Where it fits
This is a trend-direction read on Bitcoin. It sits next to the Log Regression Band, which places price against a long-run growth curve. They answer different questions and neither feeds the other.
Common questions
What are the Gaussian Channel Trend Zones?
A weekly Bitcoin chart with a 4-pole Gaussian filter of period 144 and bands around it. Whenever the filter is lower than the week before, that stretch is shaded as a falling-filter zone. The table lists every completed zone with its length, the average weekly close inside it, the highest weekly high before the next zone began and the deepest dip against that average.
What is a Gaussian filter?
A moving average built from four exponential smoothing stages stacked on top of each other. It removes weekly noise while keeping the slow cycle visible, which is why a turn in its direction takes years rather than weeks to happen.
Why is a falling filter shaded green and not red?
The filter line keeps the familiar colouring, red when falling and green when rising. The shading is green because in earlier Bitcoin cycles the falling-filter zones were the long, drawn-out stretches in which price spent its time near its lows. It is a description of those stretches, not a statement about what to do in one.
How is the zone table calculated?
A zone is every run of weeks in which the filter is lower than the week before; it needs at least four weeks to be recorded. The average price is the average weekly close with an equal amount each week. The high is the highest weekly high before the next zone began. The zone in progress is not a row: the status pill above the chart shows that the filter is falling and for how many days.
How is the risk level calculated?
Price minus the filter, divided by the filtered weekly range, ranked as a percentile against every earlier weekly reading. 0 means price is as compressed against the filter as it has ever been, 100 as stretched above it as it has ever been. The first 52 weeks are a warm-up with no reading, and a week is only ever compared with the weeks before it.
Does the page update automatically?
Yes. The history is fixed, and each newly closed weekly bar is added as it completes. The week in progress is ignored until it closes, so the zones and the risk reading only change once a week. The price shown is the live price.
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See where the filter stands right now
Everything above is how the model is built. The live chart plots weekly Bitcoin against the filter and its bands, shades the falling stretches, and lists every completed zone.