On-chain · Valuation
MVRV Z-Score, explained
How stretched Bitcoin's market value is from the price its coins last moved at, measured in standard deviations. How the Z-Score is worked out, what the 0.1 and 7 levels mark, what the history shows, and what a valuation gauge can and cannot tell you.
- Measures
- Z-Score
- Levels
- 0.1 · 7
- History from
- 2011
- Updated
- Daily
market cap less realized cap, in standard deviations
the value and overheated levels, shaded on the chart
daily, Bitcoin only
each day adds the previous day's reading
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
Two numbers describe Bitcoin’s value. Market cap values every coin at today’s price. Realized cap values every coin at the price on the day it last moved, so it reads as the average price the whole supply was last bought at. When market cap sits well above realized cap, the average coin is sitting on a large gain. When it sits below, the average coin is under water.
The Z-Score measures that gap and scales it, so that the reading from one year can be compared with the reading from another. It is a measure of how stretched the market is from its own cost basis.
How the line is worked out
Each day we take the market cap and subtract the realized cap. We then divide the result by the standard deviation of market cap measured over every day up to that one. A reading of zero means the two caps are equal. A reading of 3 means the gap is three standard deviations wide.
Two details matter. The standard deviation uses only the data up to each day, so a value that has already been drawn is never restated when new data arrives. And coins mined before Bitcoin had a market price carry a cost basis of zero, counted explicitly and not dropped.
On the chart, the Z-Score is the main line. Plain MVRV, which is market cap divided by realized cap, sits behind it as a light line on the same left axis, and Bitcoin’s price runs on its own axis, which you can set to linear or log. The data is computed daily by Blockchain Decoded from the public Bitcoin blockchain, and the history starts in mid-2011.
The reference levels
Three reference levels frame the reading. Breakeven at zero is where market cap equals realized cap, drawn as a dashed line. The value level near 0.1 and the overheated level near 7 are the classic published levels. Readings at or below about 0.1 have historically appeared around cycle bottoms, and readings at or above about 7 have historically appeared around cycle tops. The chart shades those days: blue at or below the value level, red at or above the overheated level.
They are descriptive and not thresholds that trigger anything. The zone a reading falls in, value, neutral or overheated, only says where it sits against those two levels.
The Risk Level
Next to the chart is a Risk Level from 0 to 100. It is our own scaling of the Z-Score and not part of the original indicator. The lowest Z-Score on the chart reads 1, the overheated level of 7 reads 100, and the values in between sit on a straight line, with anything above 7 held at 100.
It rescales the same reading and adds nothing new. It is not an input to either Heatmeter, and it is there so that this chart can be set beside others that are scored the same way.
What the history shows
Over the whole chart, the Z-Score has spent most of its time between the two levels. The highest readings came at the 2013 top, which reached 10.0 in April 2013, the 2017 top, which reached 10.6 in December 2017, and the 2021 top, which reached 7.2 in February 2021. The lowest reading on record, a Z-Score of about -0.7, came in October 2011.
The 2021 reading was lower than the two before it, and the standard deviation behind it was larger. A larger market makes the same stretch above realized cap look smaller. That is why a reading is best compared with the levels and with its own past, and not with a single number from a different year.
What the chart does not tell you
A valuation gauge feels like a verdict, which is when it is easiest to over-read. Five things to keep in view.
The yardstick grows with the market
The Z-Score divides by the standard deviation of market cap measured over all the days so far. As Bitcoin's market cap has grown, that yardstick has grown with it, so the same stretch above realized cap reads as a smaller number than it once did. The 2013 top reached 10.0, the 2017 top 10.6 and the 2021 top 7.2. Compare a reading with the levels and with its own past, and keep in mind that the scale itself has moved.
The reference levels are history, not targets
The 7 and 0.1 levels are the classic published levels, and the chart shades the days on which the reading is at or beyond them. Readings at or above 7 have been rare, covering well under one day in a hundred, and the chart has sat at or below 0.1 for much longer stretches. Neither level says where the next turn will come, or whether there will be one.
It counts every coin that moved
Realized cap values a coin at the price on the day it last moved. A coin that moves between two wallets of the same holder counts as a move, and a coin that is lost never moves at all. Adjusting for that is called entity adjustment, and this chart does not apply it, so it can read a little differently from versions that do. When we checked plain MVRV against a published version in July 2026 it agreed to within about 1 percent, and cycle bottoms on this chart read slightly deeper than some references.
The first months are left out
Bitcoin's earliest trading was thin and the sample of days was tiny, which makes the Z-Score jump around. The chart starts in mid-2011 for that reason. The standard deviation itself still counts every day from the start, so nothing is cherry-picked.
It describes valuation and says nothing about timing
The reading can sit in a stretched or a cheap zone for a long time before anything changes, and a low reading is not the same as a bottom, nor a high one the same as a top. It tells you how Bitcoin's value compares with what its coins last cost, measured against its own history.
The Z-Score shows how stretched value is. It cannot show when that changes.
Where it fits
This is an on-chain valuation chart, alongside the other on-chain charts that read the blockchain instead of prices alone. It is not an input to either Heatmeter. It is most useful as context next to plain MVRV and the other cost-basis charts, to see how far the market has moved from what its coins last cost.
Common questions
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
A measure of how far Bitcoin's market value sits above or below its realized value, scaled by how much market cap has varied. The line is market cap minus realized cap, divided by the standard deviation of market cap up to that day. Zero means the two are equal.
What is realized cap?
Every coin valued at the price on the day it last moved, added together. It reads as the average price the whole supply was last bought at, so it works as an aggregate cost basis. Market cap, by comparison, values every coin at today's price.
Why divide by a standard deviation?
The gap between market cap and realized cap is measured in dollars, and a dollar gap means something very different at different market sizes. Dividing by the standard deviation of market cap turns the gap into a count of standard deviations, so readings from different years sit on a comparable scale. The standard deviation uses every day up to the reading and never looks ahead, so a past value is not restated when new data arrives.
What do the 7 and 0.1 levels mean?
They are the classic published reference levels. Readings at or above about 7 have historically appeared around cycle tops, and readings at or below about 0.1 have historically appeared around cycle bottoms. The chart shades those days, blue at or below 0.1 and red at or above 7, as a description. A reading in between is simply neither.
What is the Risk Level next to the chart?
It is our own scaling of the Z-Score onto 0 to 100. The lowest Z-Score on the chart reads 1, the overheated level of 7 reads 100, and the values in between are placed on a straight line, with anything above 7 held at 100. It rescales the same reading and adds no new information. It is not an input to either Heatmeter.
How does this differ from plain MVRV?
Plain MVRV is market cap divided by realized cap, a ratio where 1 means the two are equal. The Z-Score subtracts instead and then divides by the standard deviation, which puts the reading on a scale of its own. Plain MVRV is drawn behind the Z-Score as a light line for context, and has its own guide.
How often does it update?
Once a day. Each day the series adds the previous day's reading, and the days already on the chart do not change.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. It describes how stretched Bitcoin's value is against what its coins last cost, measured against its own history. Readings near the reference levels have shown up around past cycle turns, but those are historical observations and not a guide to what happens next.
Related guides
Others in on-chain — What the blockchain itself says about holders, miners, and what people paid for their coins.
- Puell Multiple (Adaptive)The daily value of newly issued coins against its own yearly average, with overheated and value lines that adapt to the last three and a half years.
- NUPL (Adaptive)The share of Bitcoin’s market value that is an unrealized gain, with overheated and value lines that adapt to the last three and a half years.
- Percent Supply in ProfitWhat share of all Bitcoin was last moved at a price below today’s, and what share above it, against the 50 percent crossover.
- Hash RibbonBitcoin’s mining power as a 30-day and a 60-day average, and the stretches where the short one sits under the long one.
- 2-Year Cost BasisThe average price paid by coins that moved in the last two years, against Bitcoin’s price, and the stretches where price sits under it.
Every indicator we track — the full glossary.
Open the chart
Everything above is the method. On the chart you can see the value and overheated stretches shaded behind the Z-Score, see plain MVRV on the same axis, check the Risk Level, and set Bitcoin’s price to a linear or log scale.